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Acting in National Interest? ISI's role in Embassy Attack in Kabul

National security advisor, NK Narayanan has blamed the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) for planning the attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul. He stated that the Indian government had intelligence about the involvement of the ISI in the attack. Prior to this, the Afghan Government wasted no time in blaming the ISI immediately after the attack took place. However, some have not understood the reason why the ISI would engage in such an activity at this point in time. The question that has troubled some people is whether attacking the Indian embassy in Kabul was in Pakistan's interest? This is assuming that the interests of Pakistan and the ISI are the same.

The increasing role of India in various reconstruction projects in Afghanistan has led to an increase in India's influence within Afghanistan. Furthermore, India has invested close to US$750 million in various sectors in Afghanistan like roadways, airways, power plants, health care and education. Therefore, it is likely that Pakistan feels that its influence in Afghanistan is being undermined by India. From this perspective, one can argue that the blasts were aimed at nipping India's growing influence in a country where Pakistan has until now enjoyed unparalleled influence. That having been said, there is one aspect which the ISI may not have considered before allegedly attacking the Indian embassy. The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project which would carry natural gas from Iran to Pakistan and India has been of importance to Pakistan for a long time, which may now be at stake.

Like India, Pakistan also faces an energy shortage. Therefore, securing energy resources for GDP growth is as important for Pakistan. On 11 July 2008, the United Press International reported that Pakistan would face a natural gas crisis by 2012 if the IPI pipeline did not materialize. Following the attacks on the embassy in Kabul, and the identification of the ISI as the prime suspect, it is likely that India may continue to delay the pipeline project and may even prefer to transport natural gas using tankers from the Persian Gulf. Given the importance of this pipeline to Pakistan, attacking the Indian embassy in Kabul may have been foolhardy. According to the Energy Information Administration, December 2006, Pakistan depends heavily on natural gas for its energy needs. Natural gas constitutes about 50 per cent of Pakistan's energy mix.

One can argue that India's growing presence in Afghanistan has threatened Pakistan's influence in the country. The trade between India and Afghanistan reached US$225 million in 2006-2007. India's growing political advantage through its reconstruction work and trade ties seem to have undercut Pakistani influence. Therefore, one can conclude that the ISI may have considered regaining Pakistan's "strategic depth" in the immediate future from India, a more important goal than any consideration for securing Pakistan's long-term energy needs.

So can it be said that the attack conducted on the Indian embassy, allegedly by the ISI, was not in the national interest of Pakistan? While the ISI may have chosen one interest over the other, it is clear that in the event that the IPI gas pipeline does not materialize, Pakistan will face a severe economic crisis in about four years' time. Additionally, there have been concerns regarding issues related to the electricity load-sharing, water shortage, and political instability. With Pakistan's economic troubles rising, the IPI pipeline proves to be a crucial factor for its economic development. Therefore, the ISI may have miscalculated the consequences of the Kabul attack for the future of the crucial IPI pipeline.

The attack on the Indian embassy has increased the likelihood of India delaying its decision to pursue the IPI project which will have severe economic implications for Pakistan. India can afford to delay the pipeline project as natural gas, while an important and desirable element in India's energy mix, does not place undue pressure on the existing energy mix. As per the India Energy Outlook, 2007, "there have been discoveries of gas to the tune of 700 bcm2 in the last decade. This has meant that gas reserves hold promise in India. The potential for Coal Bed Methane also appears to be very promising and will probably exceed the free natural gas reserves." In the event of the IPI pipeline not materializing, India could always turn back to its domestic reserves, thereby giving it a strategic advantage.

In sum, the ISI, by planning the attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul may very well have jeopardized Pakistan's long-term economic interests. The IPI pipeline negotiations are likely to slow down because of India's possible reluctance to go ahead on the pipeline deal. Given the poor state of Pakistan's economy, the attacks on the Indian embassy may prove to be disadvantageous for Pakistan's long-term growth.