Democratization may not be a smooth process in the war ravaged topography of Afghanistan, but it is definitely being pursued in right earnest. After 2004, on August 20, 2009 the Afghans once again plunged into the electoral process. Despite threats by the Taliban, ordinary Afghans have shown much bravado, visiting the 7000 odd polling booths for electing their President as well as provincial leaders.

Though the actual turnout is yet to be confirmed, the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC) estimated that there were around 15 million eligible voters in a population of about 33 million. For the post of the President, there were 41 candidates, including two women. Opinion polls suggest incumbent President Hamid Karzai may be in the lead, but not by a substantial margin. Karzai’s closest competitor is the ophthalmologist Abdullah Abdullah, the former Foreign Minister who was sacked by Karzai in 2006. Former planning minister Bashardost and former finance minister Dr Ashraf Ghani are the other important candidates.

 

Preliminary results will be announced on September 3 and final results two weeks thereafter. Taliban insurgents vowed to disrupt the elections and warned the Afghans not to vote. Currently, there are more than 100,000 NATO-backed Western troops in Afghanistan, including 63,000 US forces to take on the Taliban. On election-day, the foreign forces created an outer periphery of security by operating mostly outside towns and villages. Indigenous Afghan forces of about 90,000 soldiers and 90,000 police provided the inner ring of security taking responsibility for the core populated areas. In this context, it is worth mentioning the most recent declaration made by NATO Secretary-General Anders Rasmussen for doubling the size of Afghan security forces to about 400,000 personnel. He also termed the presidential election a success from a security point of view amidst Taliban threats.

Hamid Karzai also proclaimed his country's elections a success. "The Afghan people dared rockets, bombs and intimidation and came out to vote. We'll see what the turnout was. But they came out to vote. That's great, that's great,” Karzai exclaimed. Sporadic incidents of violence were reported on the day of the election.

The outcome of the Presidential elections is worth noting. If Karzai fails to garner more than 50 per cent of the legitimate vote, then he shall have to undergo another fight, tentatively fixed on October 1, most probably with Dr Abdullah Abdullah. Karzai, aged 51, an ethnic Pashtun, relies in part on the support of powerful former guerrilla chiefs. Some of those elements could move the other away if they are not certain that he will win, while others may bargain for lucrative positions in the government after his victory. Karzai has been a master at coalition politics for the last five years and would be adept in handling such situations. Moreover, in the last elections in 2004, Karzai had secured 55 per cent of the votes cast, although one must remember that Abdullah was his ally then.

Abdullah's roots are in the northern, mainly ethnic Tajik anti-Taliban guerrilla movement. He draws most of his support from north Afghanistan, making it a little difficult for him to win enough southern support to defeat Karzai. Since his father was a Pashtun from the south Abdullah may well have a realistic chance of competing against Karzai. Corruption, lack of development, alliance with former militia leaders and high civilian casualties caused by foreign forces have eroded the public support of Karzai to an extent. Furthermore, Abdullah has done his home work properly and run a vigorous campaign.

A second round of presidential elections would mean at least six more weeks of political uncertainty and can provide the Taliban another opportunity to wreck havoc. Nevertheless, a second round can also be presented as a proof that the first round was not engineered which would convince the Afghan masses and the world at large that a real process of democratization has begun in Afghanistan.

Whoever comes out victorious in the Presidential elections, the top agenda for him would be to tackle the Taliban, along with improving infrastructure. India would definitely like the friendly Karzai regime to retain the leadership, but Abdullah, in view of his connections with the Northern Alliance, may not be a bad candidate either.

India has continued the construction of the Parliament building in Kabul and keeping in mind IC-814 incident and the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in July 2008, would certainly want a peaceful democratic Taliban-free Afghanistan for strategic as well as economic reasons. The proper functioning of democracy in Afghanistan is also a challenge for the Obama government since the American President ordered a massive troop build-up early this year as part of his strategy to counter the Taliban.

Whatever be the real outcome of these elections, it is imperative for wisdom to prevail among the different ethnic groups in Afghanistan so as to usher in democracy in the country of ‘Buzkashi’. Amen.