Will Gujarat repeat for the BJP?

09 Feb, 2003    ·   966

Rajeshwari argues that Gujrat electoral formula will not yield the same results in the rest of the country for BJP
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by obtaining 126 seats in Gujrat Assembly elections is being attributed to its successful exploitation of communal violence. Though there was widespread condemnation of the electoral use of Godhra incident at the academic and societal level, communal violence has ensured favourable political results for the BJP. Now, the significant question is whether the BJP will employ the same strategy in other states. The next question is will it yield the same results.

 

 

An analysis of the caste-political-social equations in other states, like UP, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh would prove that the application of the Gujrat model by BJP might not yield similar results.

 

 

The BJP under Narendra Modi changed the post-communal mindset of the people for its own benefit. The campaign centered mainly around general rather than specific issues of constituencies; this strategy reflected in the results. The BJP’s greatest gains were from the violence affected areas, where it won 17 out of 19 seats in the Ahemedabad district. On the contrary, in areas like Kutch and Saurashtra where the main issues were water scarcity, poverty and development, the BJP’s performance was poor. Though it managed to win two-third of the seats in some of these areas, it could not manage large leads while competing with Congress.

 

 

The Godhra factor did bring large gains for the party, considering the fact that it suffered huge losses in the Zilla Panchayat elections held in 2000, in which the BJP won only 27 percent of the seats. The party’s dominance was also shaken in the by-elections where it lost important constituencies. Therefore, it was clear that the governing party in Gujrat would get a run for its money in the Assembly elections, but for Godhra, which was followed by the communal riots.

 

 

In addition, the election results show a sharp inclination of the Adivasi community towards the BJP, meaning serious trouble for the Congress in the state. This is also important, as the Adivasis were active participants in the communal violence in Gujrat. Therefore, the BJP can now take advantage of an influential urban upper caste base but has penetrated down the social order. The Gujrati political culture has shifted towards the Hindutva right and this shift is a product of a decade-long conscious campaigning in the state.

 

 

The more dangerous proposition is the development of a political culture, which is a slow process but nevertheless a possibility that could pay more dividends in future in the process of replicating Gujrat elsewhere. But the vital question is, can similar situations be created in other states to win elections, and will the BJP be able to change the political culture in these states?

 

 

A comparison of the BJP’s present position in other states would prove that, in the near future, application of the Gujrat formula in other states would not work in its favour.  The party has managed to gain a strong base  in Maharashtra , Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, but it does not enjoy the same status here as it does in Gujrat. It shares a common ideological platform with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra , but significantly it is regionalism that gives the Shiv Sena an upper hand in the state. In states like UP, the caste factor plays a very important role; hence the BJP has to make adjustments with the dominant parties like the BSP and SP. In Rajasthan it faces tough competition from the Congress, which has a strong organizational base in the state as compared to Gujrat. In the South the BJP has managed to register a presence, but has not been able to gain any major influence due to the presence of strong regional parties.

 

 

In the immediate future another Gujrat might not be on the cards but one cannot completely downplay this possibility in the long run. The sudden inclination shown by the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister towards the BJP and the warm welcome that Mr. Narendra Modi received in Maharashtra recently, reveal the changing mindset of the political elite in the country.

 

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