The year 2003 seems to herald a culture of peace in India’s northeast. The continuing negotiation process with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland–Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) having entered a decisive phase, a number of outfits in various northeastern States are wanting to sit with the government to resolve their grievances. A process is set in motion, which should go a long way in resolving the long standing conflicts in the region and initiate a movement for peace.

Civil society organizations are leading the movement for reconciliation among the various Naga tribes. Organizations like the Naga Hoho (the apex tribal council) and the Church have worked hard to generate tremendous public support for the ongoing peace talks between the NSCN-IM and the Government of India. The ban on the NSCN-IM now stands withdrawn. The State government too has shown positive gestures by withdrawing criminal cases against NSCN leaders and paving a way for their visit to India. It would appear that the NSCN-IM, as a true representative of the Naga sentiments would be willing to traverse the extra mile to achieve peace in the State.

In Assam, the two primary insurgent groups i.e., the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) continue to resist the idea of a dialogue for peace. Factions of two peripheral groups, Dima Halim Daoga (DHD) – mostly active in the districts of NC Hills, and the United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) – active in the district of Karbi Anglong, have initiated a peace process with the government. While the UPDS started its negotiation with the government in the second part of 2002, the DHD declared a unilateral six-month long ceasefire on 31 December 2002. In addition, the Adivasi Cobra Force (ACF) already abides by a year long ceasefire with the State government. All these, hopefully, provide a much-needed breather to the people of Assam; they have been witness to 471 insurgency related deaths in the year 2002, including 415 killings by the ULFA and the NDFB.

In Meghalaya, indications are that the Garo outfit, Achik National Volunteers Council (ANVC) is also willing to join the bandwagon for peace. In January 2003, the ANVC representatives are scheduled to meet the officials of the Union Home Ministry in New Delhi. Successful culmination of the meeting may solve half of Meghalaya’s problems leaving only the Khasi outfit, the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), to continue with its bush wars. Like in Nagaland, Church leaders in Meghalaya too have been working overtime to spread the message of peace.

The New Year appears to have brought in opportunities for peace in the region. The culture of violence, marked by not only the continuation of several insurgent activities but also the birth of multiple outfits in the past years, now appears to be heading for a meltdown. However, a moment of challenge remains for the authorities involved in the negotiating process to achieve positive results. On that would depend not only the solution of substantive issues these outfits are fighting for, but would also entice other outfits, in these States and outside, to renounce violence and opt for a negotiated settlement of their grievances.

Manipur and Tripura are untouched by this wave of peace. Manipur recorded 211 insurgency related deaths in 2002 compared to 256 in 2001. However, the decrease in the number of total casualties does not indicate a drop in violence as the casualty figures for civilians and security force personnel recorded a significant rise from the 2001 figures and attacks on security force personnel, abductions and extortion activities continued unabated.

In Tripura too, 185 insurgency related deaths were reported in 2002 including that of 43 security force personnel. The State also witnessed 150 cases of abduction of which 19 were killed in captivity. There has been no inclination on part of the three prominent outfits – the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) and the two factions of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) – to consider the appeals for peace. And with the forthcoming State Legislative Assembly elections, violence is expected to rise.

The unfolding chain of events would thus be a test of the statesmanship for the leaders in various States of the region. A proactive policy of spreading the message of peace among the population along with making the success of development reach the lowest ebb of society might prove to be the magic stick of change. It is also a test of commitment for the civil societies engaged in working towards a tangible solution for the problems. The northeast stands on the crossroads today. It is up to the people of the region to choose their directions.