China is not only the most populous country in the world but is also the leading arms importer. According to SIPRI, China bought ships, aircrafts and other combat systems worth $3 billion last year. Chinese arms purchases are again in the news because of the eight Kilo class diesel-electric submarines it is likely to procure from Russia, which has entered into an arms sales agreement worth $4 billion with China. The package includes four Sovremenny class destroyers, S300 PMU2 anti-aircraft missiles, 40 Su-30MKK fighter-bombers and these submarines. This package which is likely to be delivered within 4-5 years will make Russia the biggest arms supplier to China, replacing Israel.

     China had earlier embarked on a project for domestic production of ‘Song’ class guided missile destroyers with assistance from Israel. It is reported that ‘Song’ trials, which began in 1995, have been far from satisfactory.

     The change in Chinese arms trading partners reflects the changed imperatives of the post-cold war world. China’s soaring ambitions to be a great power do not gel with American plans for the Asia- Pacific region. In the current international security environment, USA views China more as a competitor than as friend. Therefore Israel, USA’s most trusted ally, is not evincing much interest in the timely production of ‘Song’ class submarines.

     Taiwan is likely to emerge as the main bone of contention between America and mainland China. USA has been providing moral and military support to Taiwan to keep China on tenterhooks. In April this year, the Bush administration approved a multi million dollar arms package for Taiwan, including of 30 AH-64 D Apache helicopters, 12 P-3C submarine-hunting aircraft, four Kidd class destroyers, long range Radar systems and Patriot missiles.

     This package was enough to raise anxieties among the Chinese who see America to be playing a dubious role by using as Taiwan a “front wife” in their larger strategic game plan. America on the other hand sees China to be a bully in the region which is constantly threatening Taiwan through military exercises and missile tests. In 1996, America had dispatched two of its aircraft carriers in the wake of Chinese missile testing across the Taiwan straits.

     The September 11 attacks and the full concentration of the US administration on the Al-Qaeda and homeland security had pushed the perceived Chinese threats to the back burner. However, as the US stabilizes its policy post 9/11, it is again beginning to take note of the Chinese military interests and activities in the area.

     The recent submarine purchases by Beijing are being viewed in Washington as a prelude to greater coercion of Taiwan through naval blockade. The submarines also pose a challenge to the US navy, which is yet to devise effective means to detect diesel electric kilo class submarines lurking beneath the oceans. Therefore, to checkmate the advancing Chinese interest and economic relations with Taiwan, the U.S. has been continuously pursuing a policy of appeasing Taiwan and maintaining a strategic balance in the region by arms sales and development of theatre missile defences.

     It is well known that there is a huge capability gap between the U.S. and China. The USA, which has won the hard fought Cold War and established its supremacy in the world, would hardly like to construct another pole by exaggerating Chinese capabilities and projecting it as a competitor. The US policy is to keep China unbalanced by keeping it embroiled in Taiwan and Tibet.

     China is aware of the difficulties in being recognized as a military super power. It also realizes that it cannot do anything to prevent the US from operating in Asia Pacific and Central Asia. Therefore, it has begun the process of transforming its military doctrine from “people’s war” to “modern war”. The latest defence purchases are a part of this process of military modernization. Furthermore, China which aspires great power status cannot appear to be a spineless country, therefore, after raising the issue of US unilateralism it is building its naval forces to acquire some power projection capabilities capable to offering resistance to the US.

     These factors will determine the future Chinese military budget which, according to Ellis Joffe, is likely to grow “at two to two and a half times the size of this year’s $20 billion”.

     This increase will ensure that China continues to develop its indigenous military capabilities and import the crucial technologies to modernize its forces.