Sizing Up of Pakistan: Strengths and Vulnerabilities

25 Jun, 2002    ·   776

Brig SS Chandel wants the world powers to threaten Pakistan that they will stop all economic aid and destroy its nuclear capability if it does not stop cross border terrorism
Brig. SS Chandel
The war clouds over India and Pakistan appear to be dispersing. Hence, there is a need to realistically appraise Pakistan 's capability to counter its advantages and see what can be done to avert a war in future. 

 

 

Pakistan 's size should not be appraised by its geographical boundaries. It is considered by the Islamic world as their frontline state. Its foremost supporters are Saudi Arabia (second highest spender on defence equipment despite little threat from any foreign country and comprehensive protective umbrella from the USA ), Kuwait and Libya , all rabidly Islamic states; they will supply Pakistan with whatever military equipment it may need, especially combat aircraft. Next in line are the other Arabian states whose military assets are limited and not easy to transfer to Pakistan across the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea . Indonesia , Malaysia , Iraq and Iran are likely to remain neutral although sympathetic to Pakistan . Bangladesh is of use in mounting intelligence operations and keeping some Indian troops committed in the East by aiding recalcitrant Nagas, Bodos and Tripura militants.

 

 

Pakistan 's major asset is its 150 million homogenous population which is both motivated and industrious; compared to the other Muslim countries, the population is fairly educated. Pakistan 's main weakness is its economy as assessed by its growth rate of 3.6 per cent compared to India 's 6.3 per cent. India 's is 7 times bigger and its per capita income (PPP) and population are 22 per cent and 50 per cent higher respectively. Pakistan 's capital formation is 66 per cent lower. This will soon be one tenth of India 's and its military expenditure will then become unsustainable. This is what the USA and the West have been painstakingly explaining to President Musharraf.

 

 

The USA 's role will be crucial in any conflict in the sub continent. But the USA will be in a moral dilemma. On one side it has Pakistan which has been its faithful ally for 50 years and which did not hesitate to jettison its own creation, Taliban, in the USA's war against terror. But, on the flip side it has kept on aiding and abetting terrorism against India . This shows that, its commitment to militant Islam is total and its overt actions are merely tactical. India , on the other hand is a full-fledged democracy. During the Nehru and Indira Gandhi eras it had been blatantly critical of America . However, that policy was gradually changed in the '90s and the NDA government is far more inclined towards the USA and the West. Then again, there is the major issue of a market of one billion people which is critical to the commercial interests of America and the West. Equally critical is the issue of nuclear war. The USA , the West, Russia , China or Japan are never going to allow it because a thermonuclear war will affect everybody across the earth. Such a war is, however, not beyond the realm of possibility. Therefore, to protect its permanent interests, the USA will exert maximum pressure on Pakistan in league with the G-8 powers and China .

 

 

China has been carefully and assiduously cultivated by Pakistan from the early 60's. It is Pakistan 's major supplier of military hardware and lately of nuclear and missile expertise directly and through North Korea . However, since the virus of Islamic fundamentalism has begun to spread; it has affected the northern Chinese provinces of Kansu , Yunan, Chinese Mongolia, Chengdu and Szchechuan. China cannot take such activity kindly. Russia , on the other hand, has Chechuya with its hostile Muslim population and rich oil-fields. Therefore, these two nations are not likely to be sympathetic to Pakistan where cross border terrorism against India is concerned. But all of them, the USA , the West, Russia and China would like to keep Pakistan alive and kicking so long as Pakistan obstains from using its nuclear option and keeps the terrorists under control. The last caveat is not an easy one for Pakistan to abide by. For the sake of his personal survival within the Army, Musharraf cannot remove Kashmir from his mind. And terrorism is the most economical way to keep India down. But then it may lead to escalations, as it happened recently. When it comes to a drubbing at the hands of India it may lead to a nuclear strike. Something of the scenario of Dragon Fire! So what should be done?

 

 

The world powers have to sternly draw a line stating that war and terrorism are not acceptable to them. That if Pakistan does not heed their sane advice, they will stop all economic aid and destroy its nuclear capability. 

 

 

 

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