Bush's Approach to Pakistan

11 Aug, 2001    ·   538

Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra argues that the Bush administration is unlikely to neglect or ignore a nuclear Pakistan-ruled by the military with a weak economy
Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra
How would the new Bush Administration deal with Pakistan ? Will it be any different from the previous Clinton Administration? In fact, when President Bush assumed office in Washington, Pakistan was reeling under three layers of American sanctions.

 

 

The first goes back to October 1990 when the Pressler Amendment was imposed on Pakistan by the Bush Senior Administration. These non-proliferation related sanctions, were imposed on Pakistan due to the President  inability to certify Pakistan 's nuclear virginity to Congress. The second set of sanctions were imposed    in May 1998 after the six nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan following the Pokhran II nuclear explosions by India . The third layer of  sanctions were imposed in October 1999 after the General Pervez Musharraf staged a military coup against the democratically elected Government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

 

 

Washington is currently engaged in reviewing its sanctions policy towards South Asia . While India and Pakistan are under similar US sanctions imposed after the  nuclear tests in 1998, the Pressler Amendment and democracy-related sanctions are Pakistan specific. If the Bush Administration decides to lift the sanctions imposed in 1998, what will happen to the other two sets of sanctions?

 

 

On the surface, it appears that the US-Pakistan relations have been in the doldrums since 1990. The suspension of US military and economic assistance after  the Pressler amendment, the controversy over the sale of F-16 aircraft to Pakistan, Pakistani support to the Taliban in Afghanistan, US intelligence reports highlighting Pakistani involvement in terrorist activities in Kashmir, Pakistani unwillingness to cooperate with the US in tracking down Osama Bin Laden and the Clinton Administration's approach towards the Kargil conflict have contributed to the growing number of bilateral irritants.  

 

 

Over all these years, Indo-US relations have improved beyond all expectations. This state of affairs would have been different if Islamabad had not conducted its nuclear tests after Pokhran II. In 1992 the Pakistani Foreign Secretary had openly claimed on US soil that his country had acquired  nuclear weapons capability. The Kargil adventure by Pakistan and the Indian restraint during that conflict also influenced  US perception of events and policy towards South Asia . While Indian democracy remain vibrant, the military coup in  Pakistan   made things worse for it. The Pakistani economy has gone downhill as compared to  six plus percentage annual growth rate of the Indian GDP. What has Pakistan done to overcome its frustration over the US attitude? 

 

 

First  it has jumped into the Chinese lap for assistance and protection. The Chinese leadership has proved willing, since Beijing has also been warmly watching the Indian efforts to move closer towards the United States . Chinese assistance to the nuclear and missile programmes of Pakistan has been steady. The US has not been able to do anything except express concern and urge China to exercise restraint in its arms and technology policies. China , on its part, has been making verbal commitments to abide by export control norms and then violating them. 

 

 

Secondly, Pakistan has  been in search of alternative sources of military purchases, particularly  among the US allies who could  help it. The recent tie-up with Italian companies for joint defence production is one such example. Pakistan has continued to devote funds for its military activities, despite its precarious economy.

 

 

Finally, Islamabad continues its efforts to woo Washington   and restore its earlier close ties. The Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar during his recent visit to Washington , sought to impress its policy making community that US sanctions have weakened the Pakistani economy and, encouraged the extremist forces. He announced a policy of no-first test of nuclear devices.

 

 

Washington is aware of Pakistan 's theatrics, since Pakistan announced a different nuclear policy at home-developing a nuclear navy! But the Bush administration is unlikely to neglect or ignore a nuclear Pakistan-ruled by the military with a weak economy. Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca's visit to Islamabad made clear  that the Bush administration is devising a new policy to engage Pakistan .  

 

 

 

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