The Government of Philippines and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) recently concluded the 34th exploratory talks. This round of talks is perhaps the final one to frame the Basic Law of the Bangsamoro. As the name suggests, the Basic Law of the Bangsamoro will be the fundamental governing law of the proposed Bangsamoro, as envisioned in the Framework Agreement on Bangsamoro (FAB).

What were the main features of the 34th round of exploratory talks? What were its achievements and how far have the talks moved towards finalising the Basic Law?

The Technical Working Groups, from both sides, convened for the first time during this round of negotiations to discuss issues of power-sharing, wealth-sharing, modalities and arrangements and normalisation, which as annexure, would deepen the Basic Law. When the breakthrough FAB was signed by GPH and MILF on 12 October 2012, it was declared that the annexure (as mentioned above) will be finalised by the end of 2012.

The talks were held up over the leadership of the proposed Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA).  There were differences in the positions of the government and that of the MILF. The former wants BTA to be inclusive and represent ‘Bangsamoro’, which essentially means including other Moro groups. The MILF, on the other hand, wants to be the chair of the BTA. It fears chaos; otherwise, should the chairmanship be “open for grabs”. The parties could not issue a joint statement at the end of the talks. The MILF described it as a “technical impasse” while the GPH Peace Panel mentioned the outcome as having made substantial progress. Overall, both sides expressed satisfaction over the progress made so far. Reportedly, there have been substantial gains over issues of power and wealth sharing. Miriam Ferrer, the GPH Peace Panel Chair, said that the disagreement over BTA leadership was not insurmountable and that it would not affect the process of carving out the Basic Law.

The deadlock over the BTA can be analysed from two different scenarios, which may play out different outcomes:

If MILF Does Not Lead the BTA
The onus to make the Bangsamoro representative and inclusive is upon the MILF, who has to take support of other Moro groups in forming the Bangsamoro entity. In order to make other Moro groups confident in its endeavours, the MILF can let go of the BTA leadership. The success of the peace process is; inter-alia, contingent on the support of splinter and other Moro groups. The chairmanship of the BTA should be symbolic of the MILF’s commitment to inclusivity. Since many Moro groups have shown support to the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro between GPH and MILF, allowing others to be active participants in the process should be seen as a gesture of reciprocity on the part of the MILF.

If MILF Leads BTA
Symbolic as it may be, this would put the MILF as the leader of the Bangsamoro peace process. This may not be taken very well by certain sections. These include local politicians in Mindanao, who are averse to the MILF. If the MILF is adamant to not let go of a power position at such an elementary level, a power-struggle amongst other Moro groups cannot be ruled out. Despite the general cooperation over the agreement, there are elements like the MNLF’S Nur Misuari and the BILF’s Umbra Kato who are potential spoilers of the peace process, besides some splinter groups. For the sake of building its legitimacy, the MILF may want to avoid power-struggles at an elementary level.

Conclusion
Of course, the extent of the impact either scenario can achieve is vague. Likewise, as the government panel believes, this issue may not be very challenging. But it may be useful to understand the psyche of the MILF’s negotiators at this point. Perhaps by creating an impasse over the BTA, the MILF wants to better bargain on its demand. This can be explained as follows - so far, not all of the MILF’s demands have been agreed to. In fact, both sides have only proceeded on issues of mutual agreement and have left contentious ones aside. Second, the deadline on detailing an annexure to the FAB is by the end of 2012. In this regard, the MILF may want to put the government panel under pressure and strike a more favourable deal for itself. However, in the words of Miriam Ferrer, “The process is also flexible, therefore should the deadline be passed, the government is willing for it”; which hints that the GPH panel would not succumb under any time-frame pressures.