As a reaction to the cutting of the exploration cables of an oil survey ship by Chinese surveillance vessels, Vietnam staged a display of its military strength in the contested waters of the South China Sea (SCS). Why has Vietnam reacted in this way now? Will the US intervene if the situation deteriorates? 
 
Understanding Vietnam’s Objective/ Game Plan
Vietnam claims the island on historical grounds and on the continental shelf principle in accordance with the provision of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).  It claims the entire Spratly island chains as an offshore district of the Khanh Hoa province and continues to claim the Paracel islands, despite their seizure by China in 1976.

The recent show of military strength by Vietnam in the SCS challenges the self-assertive Chinese sovereignty in the region. Hanoi calls it an ‘annual routine training’, but this military exercise has taken place after a series of events that have progressively strained relations between China and Vietnam.

Vietnam conducted live-fire military exercises in the South China Sea; it put a barrage of naval artillery for four hours last week, 40kms off Quang Nam province in central Vietnam. The drills were conducted inside the Vietnamese economic zone. By conducting this exercise, Hanoi has sent a clear message to Beijing that it simply refuses to be sabotaged by Chinese supremacy. On the contrary, China considers this as a gross violation of its sovereignty and maritime rights. It reacted by warning Vietnam to stop all its activities.

This exercise occurred against the backdrop of increased anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam.  Hundreds of Vietnamese protested over the cutting of the exploration cables of a Vietnamese vessel owned by state energy company ‘Petro Vietnam’. The protests took place in Hanoi and Ho Chi Mihn city with the tacit approval of the government. Of significance is that such protests are rare in communist Vietnam.

The Chinese vessels which cut the exploration cables were apparently conducting a seismic survey inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. Meanwhile, Hanoi has called it a ‘premeditated attack’. 
 
China gave a different version of the same events in a report carried by the official news agency, Xinhua. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that Chinese fishing vessels were driven away by armed Vietnamese ships. As the boats were driven out, they got entangled in the underwater cables of the Vietnamese ship. They subsequently got caught in the area and two Chinese ships had to come to free the vessels. China reacted to this incident by stating that Vietnam should not take actions that would further add or complicate the issue. In the past few days a number of Vietnamese websites have been hacked by Chinese hackers, which demonstrates the strain in relations.

US response
The ties between Vietnam and the US seem to have grown closer in recent times. Last year, Secretary of States Hillary Clinton spoke of a ‘national interest’ in the sea and urged a solution for  the disputes. The US has called for a ‘peaceful solution’ of the current crisis.

This can be contextualized within Vietnam’s need for a pattern to balance China in the region. For this purpose, Vietnam is moving closer to the US, side-stepping its old war memories. There is also a perception in China that Vietnam is playing at the behest of some other power.

Tensions also rose between China and the Philippines when Manila said it would refer to the SCS as the ’West Philippine Sea’. Tensions have risen between China and other claimants, namely Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, who also have stakes in the region.
 Such frictions in the SCS is dangerous for regional security. This Chinese action was against the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea 2002 (DOC) which was signed by ASEAN and China to promote peace and stability in the region. This declaration is not a legal instrument and thus is technically not binding on the signatories. It is perhaps even less persuasive than the code of conduct that many countries in the region desire.

In the absence of any legally binding code of conduct, if China wants a peaceful solution to the dispute, it will have to stop making such assertive postures. The above-mentioned area clearly falls under Vietnamese sovereignty according to the 1982 UNCLOS. Such confrontations in the will further destabilize the region and give external powers like the US a chance to intervene.