Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed Prime Minister of Thailand who is presently living in Europe has become the haunting figure accused of whipping up a political crisis in Thailand. Usually, it is stated that ‘history repeats itself’ but not as frequently as in Thailand. Owing to the court order in February 2010 for the confiscation of the Thaksin Shinawatra property worth US$2.8 billion, the Thaksin supporters have taken on to the streets since 12th March  and after more than three weeks of protests have swarmed the Thai Parliament on 7th April. The protestors retreated after their leaders urged them to do so in order to maintain the non-violent character of the demonstrations.  But the intrusion in to the Parliament led to the imposition of emergency by the Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Earlier this week, Mr. Vejjajiva, leader of People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), invoked the Internal Security Act and sought court intervention for prosecuting protestors. The Constitutional court rebuffed him with a remark that he already has all authority. This shows that Abhisit is wary of the backlash and the after effects in case of the deaths of protestors. This would translate into reduced inflow of foreign direct investment, negative effect on stocks as well as a slump in the tourism sector. Abhisit has been accused of playing into the hands of military and Bangkok based elite and undermining the interests and welfare of the rural electorate.

The leaders of the United Front for Democracy against dictatorship (UDD) have given a call to the rural populations residing in the northern and western parts of Bangkok, a Thaksin electoral stronghold, to descend in to the Thai Capital.  Larger mobilization of ‘red shirts’ in the coming days are expected but imposition of emergency would imply the military gaining powers in terms of controlling media, suspension of legal rights and harsh methods to disperse protestors which the military has been desisted from doing till date. Pro-Thaksin supporters (‘red shirts’) have been rallying for early elections and dissolution of Parliament. Abhisit Vejjajeva, Prime Minister of Thailand and leader of People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has been promising elections within nine months which is not acceptable to protestors. Though after two rounds of failed negotiations, the de-facto leader of the protestors former General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Chairman of Pheu Thai Party (previously known as People’s Power Party i.e. Thai Rak Thai Party) has stated that the government might take a call on elections within three to four months. 

It seems that Abhisit is losing ground and he might announce elections in Thailand in the next three to four months. Thaksin’s popularity in north and western Thailand is undisputed and even if the Pheu Thai Party (erstwhile People’s Power party) contests elections, it is sure to gain the majority vote. In any case the military may extend support to keep Abhisit in power. One thing is for sure that military is bound to play a major role and if things do not turn the way military wants then there might be usurpation of power by the military, as happened in 2006.

In the 2006 military coup orchestrated by General Sonthi, it was argued that the continued protests by the PAD have jeopardized the law and order situation in the country and so the military had taken up the reins of the government after the directives of the revered King Bhumibol Adulyatej. Thereafter, the interim government which was formed remained in power till December 2007. The elections which were held in December 2007 provided majority votes to the People’s Power Party(previously known as Thai Rak Thai party), and with the help of five smaller parties formed the government at the centre. The government was led by Samak Sundaravej who was removed in September 2008 owing to his appearances in cookery programs in televisions. He was succeeded by Thaksin’s brother in law Somchai Wongsawat who was subsequently removed by the constitutional court owing to irregularities in elections. He was barred from contesting elections for the next five years. In the meanwhile Thaksin who had returned to Thailand in February 2008 jumped the ball and fled to UK in August while the ‘yellow shirts’ led by PAD continued their protests for removal of government. In a number of instances these protests turned violent, even swarming airports, highways and blockading both air and vehicular traffic. Prior to the resignation of the Prime Minister, the People’s Power Party renamed itself and formed a new party Pheu Thai Party the same month with more than 80 members of parliament. Though PAD leader Abhisit became the Prime Minister but he himself had to face the ‘red shirts’ protests during the April 2009 East Asian Summit.  Thailand is subtly plunging into political crisis and the role of military, the king and political parties shall decide the political fate of the country. The recurrent political crisis in Thailand is a matter which should be addressed by neighbouring countries. The Thai people along with ASEAN have to work together for a long term solution.