Closure of the Manas Airbase
20 Feb, 2009 · 2814
Angira Sen Sarma analyzes Kyrgyzstan’s decision to evict the US from its lone base in Central Asia
On 3 February, the Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced the closure of the US base at Manas, a crucial logistics hub for US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan. Of the developments that have influenced the US eviction from Manas, some analysts argue that the recent decision is probably a consequence of Russian promise of US$2billion aid to Kyrgyzstan. Both Russia and Kyrgyzstan though have denied this argument. However, Bakiyev’s announcement, which comes just after his meeting with Russian President Medvedev indicates just such a possibility.
Earlier too, Kyrgyz-US relations have been in trouble over the issue of fees for the base. In 2001, the US was paying only US$2million a year. Kyrgyzstan later bargained for a hike, to which the US eventually yielded and it began paying around US$17 million annually for using the base in addition to other assistance. With the US base in Uzbekistan closed in 2005, Kyrgyzstan became an important corridor to Afghanistan. The recent announcement could be another way to negotiate for a renewed fee structure.
Earlier. in December 2006, the shooting of a Kyrgyz national by a US soldier at Manas base also soured relations. The failure to take action against the US soldier and his eventual removal from Kyrgyzstan did not go well with the Kyrgyz government and also the local population. The decision to delay the Parliamentary voting too raises doubts about Bakiyev’s real intention. The Kyrgyz Parliament will nevertheless respond according to Bakiyev’s plan. The delay is an attempt to buy more time to negotiate with the US; thus reflecting Bakiyev’s plan to get the best deal.
Despite these differences, the eviction announcement, nevertheless, came as a surprise for the US. The Kyrgyz side expressed no discontentment even during the visit of Gen. David H Petraeus, Head of US Central Command, to Kyrgyzstan in October 2008. Gen Petraeus, in fact, described his meeting with Kyrgyz officials as “quiet reassuring as to the future partnership.” The present move by Bakayiev can either be a result of Russian pressure or a bargaining tactic to increase the rent. The future course taken by Kyrgyzstan will reveal the actual motive. As of now, though, the Kyrgyz action indicates its efforts to extract the maximum from the US-Russia tussle.
A second issue is the growing struggle between the CARs. The response from the other CARS following Bakiyev’s announcement reflects how each country is trying to derive maximum benefit from the situation, a development which will have a dampening effect on regional stability. Immediately following Kyrgyzstan’s announcement, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan came forward to allow access to the US.
These regional responses may be the outcome of a few recent developments in the region. Russia’s growing closeness with Uzbekistan did not go down well with the Tajik establishment, a long-time friend of Russia in the region. Russia’s stand on regional water issues during Medvedev’s visit has also irked the Tajik government. Thus, Tajikistan allowing access to the US may be a bargaining tactic against Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, which aspires to be a regional power, sees it as an opportunity to further strengthen its ties with the US. Cooperation with the US will mean more aid and less criticism on human rights and democracy issues for the CARs as they fare badly on both these fronts However, closeness with the US will eventually affect their relations with Russia, unless prudently balanced.
What will be the implications of the event? If Kyrgyzstan succeeds in raising the fee it will intensify competition in the region. Kyrgyzstan will in future also use the threat of eviction to build pressure on the US. If the base is closed, it will be a victory for Russia, which is trying to strengthen itself in the region. Moreover, if evicted from Manas, US-Kyrgyz relations will be at their lowest with this also having a negative impact on US position in the region as a whole. It will impede the US mission in Afghanistan, especially at the time when the US is planning to step up its operations in Afghanistan and the Obama administration will now face a tough challenge to find alternative routes.
However, the deteriorating Afghan situation will have its spillover effect in the Central Asian region. Using their strategic location as a bargaining tool could prove costly for the CARs and the lack of unity will be a major dampener in the regional effort to resolve the crisis. Meanwhile, a US-Russia deal to address the ongoing Afghan crisis could reduce the tendency among the CARs to play on the rivalry between US and Russia. Nevertheless, engaging with Russia will not be easy for the US for there will be hard bargaining by Russia.
The growing uncertainty is also worrying for India. The rivalry among the external players as well as the intra-regional competition will have a destabilizing effect in the region and India can ill afford a weak and unstable ‘extended neighbourhood.’
Earlier too, Kyrgyz-US relations have been in trouble over the issue of fees for the base. In 2001, the US was paying only US$2million a year. Kyrgyzstan later bargained for a hike, to which the US eventually yielded and it began paying around US$17 million annually for using the base in addition to other assistance. With the US base in Uzbekistan closed in 2005, Kyrgyzstan became an important corridor to Afghanistan. The recent announcement could be another way to negotiate for a renewed fee structure.
Earlier. in December 2006, the shooting of a Kyrgyz national by a US soldier at Manas base also soured relations. The failure to take action against the US soldier and his eventual removal from Kyrgyzstan did not go well with the Kyrgyz government and also the local population. The decision to delay the Parliamentary voting too raises doubts about Bakiyev’s real intention. The Kyrgyz Parliament will nevertheless respond according to Bakiyev’s plan. The delay is an attempt to buy more time to negotiate with the US; thus reflecting Bakiyev’s plan to get the best deal.
Despite these differences, the eviction announcement, nevertheless, came as a surprise for the US. The Kyrgyz side expressed no discontentment even during the visit of Gen. David H Petraeus, Head of US Central Command, to Kyrgyzstan in October 2008. Gen Petraeus, in fact, described his meeting with Kyrgyz officials as “quiet reassuring as to the future partnership.” The present move by Bakayiev can either be a result of Russian pressure or a bargaining tactic to increase the rent. The future course taken by Kyrgyzstan will reveal the actual motive. As of now, though, the Kyrgyz action indicates its efforts to extract the maximum from the US-Russia tussle.
A second issue is the growing struggle between the CARs. The response from the other CARS following Bakiyev’s announcement reflects how each country is trying to derive maximum benefit from the situation, a development which will have a dampening effect on regional stability. Immediately following Kyrgyzstan’s announcement, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan came forward to allow access to the US.
These regional responses may be the outcome of a few recent developments in the region. Russia’s growing closeness with Uzbekistan did not go down well with the Tajik establishment, a long-time friend of Russia in the region. Russia’s stand on regional water issues during Medvedev’s visit has also irked the Tajik government. Thus, Tajikistan allowing access to the US may be a bargaining tactic against Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, which aspires to be a regional power, sees it as an opportunity to further strengthen its ties with the US. Cooperation with the US will mean more aid and less criticism on human rights and democracy issues for the CARs as they fare badly on both these fronts However, closeness with the US will eventually affect their relations with Russia, unless prudently balanced.
What will be the implications of the event? If Kyrgyzstan succeeds in raising the fee it will intensify competition in the region. Kyrgyzstan will in future also use the threat of eviction to build pressure on the US. If the base is closed, it will be a victory for Russia, which is trying to strengthen itself in the region. Moreover, if evicted from Manas, US-Kyrgyz relations will be at their lowest with this also having a negative impact on US position in the region as a whole. It will impede the US mission in Afghanistan, especially at the time when the US is planning to step up its operations in Afghanistan and the Obama administration will now face a tough challenge to find alternative routes.
However, the deteriorating Afghan situation will have its spillover effect in the Central Asian region. Using their strategic location as a bargaining tool could prove costly for the CARs and the lack of unity will be a major dampener in the regional effort to resolve the crisis. Meanwhile, a US-Russia deal to address the ongoing Afghan crisis could reduce the tendency among the CARs to play on the rivalry between US and Russia. Nevertheless, engaging with Russia will not be easy for the US for there will be hard bargaining by Russia.
The growing uncertainty is also worrying for India. The rivalry among the external players as well as the intra-regional competition will have a destabilizing effect in the region and India can ill afford a weak and unstable ‘extended neighbourhood.’
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