The NSCN was formed in 1980, in protest against the 'Shillong Accord' by the then Naga National Council (NNC) with the Union Government. Less than a decade later, in 1988, differences of opinion among its top leaders led to its dramatic split into two factions - the NSCN-K led by SS Khaplang, and the NSCN-IM led by Isak C Swu and Th. Muivah. Since then, the two NSCN groups have become bitter rivals, frequently targeting each other. Two decades down the line, in November 2007, a section of NSCN-IM, comprising mostly members of the Sema tribe, split to form the NSCN-Unification, and quickly became a close ally of the NSCN-K, thus intensifying the problem. The reported emergence of yet another splinter group - the United Naga People's Council - has further compounded the situation.

The recent realignment of forces poses the greatest threat to Muivah and his Tangkhul tribe that holds sway over the NSCN-IM, as seen by the murder of the seven Tangkhuls by the NSCN-Unification. In this context, it may be recalled that the NSCN-K had issued a 'quit notice' asking all the Tangkhuls to leave the State at the earliest. The notice alleges that Nagas have borne the brunt of the cruelty of the Tangkhuls, who are from Manipur. Similarly, the NSCN-Unification warned "brethrens across the fence should not make the Nagas of Nagaland as their scapegoat and deprive us of what belongs to us."

The reported attempt of the NSCN-K-led coalition (comprising NNC and NSCN-Unification) to unify all the warring NSCN factions - a sugar-coated unification as the NSCN-IM describes - is not really targeted against the ordinary members of the NSCN-IM, or Swu, but against Th. Muivah and his Tangkhul tribe's dominance over the group. The coalition is also equally resentful of the popularity Th. Muivah enjoys, and is fully aware that if he is sidelined, the coalition can then claim to be the true representative of the Nagas. However, this may not be so easily forthcoming as Th. Muivah is still the most powerful leader and his hold over the NSCN-IM remains intact. At present, no other Naga leaders can match his stature and popularity. Likewise, almost all the local civil society groups are known to be following the NSCN-IM line. Under such circumstances, peace is unlikely to return to Nagaland any time soon.

At the same time, the violent tussle among the NSCN factions appear to indicate that the ceasefire agreements signed between the Union Government and separately with the NSCN-IM and the NSCN-K are being violated at will. According to an unofficial count (South Asia Terrorism Portal), between 2000 and 2007, at least 575 persons have been killed in Nagaland, of which 442 were insurgents, 120 were civilians and the remaining 13 belonged to the security forces. With rare exceptions, most insurgent and civilian deaths have been the result of factional clashes.

The State Government, often described as soft on the insurgents - especially the NSCN-IM - tends to surrender to their caprices, and has displayed little intent or capacity to do anything about them. Again, since the early 1990s - when the two NSCN rivalries began - the church led by the Nagaland Baptist Church Council, and the Naga Hoho (the apex tribal council) have been attempting to bring all warring factions together through a reconciliation process, but their efforts have proven futile until now.

The victims in this long-drawn battle are the common Nagas, including Tangkhuls. Despite the yearning for peace in the state, it is a remote possibility as the scourge of 'tribalism' becomes stronger by the day. There appear to be no principled and non-discriminatory efforts to contain the factional violence, and the armed factions remain a law unto themselves, immune to any suggestions or corrective measures. Under the circumstances, and in view of the enormous suffering continuously being inflicted upon innocent civilians, it is time the Union Government reviewed its 'hands off' policy and made a proper assessment of the anarchy that prevails in Nagaland.