Changed Scenario in Pakistan and Kashmir

26 Mar, 2008    ·   2519

Mushtaq Ahmad analyses the changing political situation in Pakistan and what it means for Indo-Pak relations


The events of 9/11 and the subsequent American "war on terror" brought a perceptible shift in the course of Pakistan's foreign policy, evident from its volte face, particularly in its relations with its immediate neighbourhood. President Gen. Pervaiz Mushharaf is credited as the doyen of the gradual change in Pakistan's traditional Kashmir policy. He has always talked about finding an "out of the box solution", besides meeting India "half-way" in order to carve out a solution to this chronic problem. Accordingly he drew up a "four-point formula" which created a stir in the valley and bisected the separatist camp - one supporting it and the other opposing it.

The 18 February elections in Pakistan were relatively fair, owing largely to the presence of more than 4000 foreign observers. It is pertinent to mention here that during the election campaign, the Kashmir issue did not grab the headlines of daily papers. The elections were fought almost wholly on domestic issues and major parties including PML (Q) and Jamaati Islami paid marginal attention to issues like Kashmir and India. All major parties, contrary to the past, mentioned Kashmir only in the concluding paragraphs of their election manifestos. There was no sloganeering about grabbing Kashmir or India-bashing. The fact that during electioneering, the 5th February "Kashmir Solidarity day" passed off uneventfully, speaks volumes. Besides hailing the China-India model of conflict-management, the PPP in its manifesto also stated that it would not allow lack of progress on one issue, namely Kashmir, to impede progress in other areas of common concern with India.

The PPP which emerged as the largest party after the elections, has concluded an agreement with PML (N) to form the next government. The new coalition will be confronted with the gigantic tasks of extending the control of the central government to the restive North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) as well as containing rising extremist and ultra-fundamentalist tendencies. Insurgency and internal unrest has reached critical levels which if not contained, may turn Pakistan into a failed state sooner than later.

Additionally, Pakistan has deployed more than one lakh troops along its border with Afghanistan and in NWFP. More than a thousand Pakistani soldiers have been killed and hundreds abducted by the Pakistani Taliban. Therefore, Pakistan cannot afford to continue its belligerence with India and has hence decided to change course. The changed position seems to have both short and mid-term underlying interests. While its immediate aim is to relieve Pakistan from the Kashmir front and divert more attention and resources to the restive NWFP, besides strengthening internal security; its medium-term goal seems to be to catch up with the fast-growing economies of the world and seek more and more foreign direct investment.

It is against this backdrop that the PPP Co-Chairman Zardari has realistically affirmed that lack of progress on Kashmir should not hinder forward movement on other issues with India. He averred that trade and other bilateral issues must be treated as salient, while leaving Kashmir for future generations to resolve, when the atmosphere is cordial. Keeping in view the role of Zardari in the impending dispensation, his statement seems to have set the framework for Pakistanâ??s Kashmir policy. He reiterated his point while addressing the newly-elected parliamentarians, emphasizing the need to give precedence to trade and cooperation with India, over Kashmir. This forces one to think whether Pakistan has become wary of its traditional Kashmir policy? Certainly, since it is so deeply involved in domestic issues, Kashmir will no longer constitute a priority or core issue for Pakistan.

This indicates that the new incumbent wants dialogue, reconciliation, and normalization of relations with India. The Pakistani establishment is preparing to get rid of the Kashmir problem. Furthermore, it also reflects that the new leadership in Pakistan would like to jettison the past baggage and work towards building a South Asian community.

Although no Pakistani government can completely wash its hands off Kashmir, since there is a strong military cum bureaucratic constituency which still wants to use Kashmir as a bargaining tool with India; the perspective and insights cited above nonetheless provide credibility to the belief that Pakistan and India are inching forward while sidelining the bleeding Kashmir problem to arrive at a compromise.

This is the right time for the Kashmiri leadership (both separatist and mainstream) to reconcile itself with this reality. They should iron out their differences in the larger interest of the Kashmiri people. It is high time the Government of India (GOI) initiated a meaningful and constructive dialogue with the leadership in Jammu and Kashmir to address the internal dimension of the dispute. This is also an opportune moment for the GOI to start people-oriented and trust-building measures in Kashmir, which in turn would minimize their alienation from the Indian State. The paramount requirement is to make the armed forces more humane, and avoid collateral damage during encounters with militants.

There is an urgent need for both countries to take steps to reduce the trust deficit. No doubt the dynamics have changed, but to freeze the resolution process will not help. It will be tantamount to leaving a festering wound unattended.

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