Following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto Elections for the National Assembly and four provincial assemblies in Pakistan have been rescheduled from 8 January to 18 February. The National Assembly consists of 342 seats, from Islamabad (Federal Capital), Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and Balochistan. This number includes seats reserved for women and ten seats for non-Muslims. (See table 1)

The federal capital - Islamabad has two seats. Punjab province has the maximum - 183 including 35 seats reserved for women. Sindh has 75 including 14 reserved for women; Balochistan 43 including 3 reserved for women and the NWFP 43 including 8 reserved for women. Besides the four provinces, FATA has 12 seats, with no seats reserved for women.

Table 1: Seats for National Assembly

As mentioned above, besides the National Assembly, the four legislative assemblies of the provinces are also facing elections. The Punjab Assembly has maximum seats in Pakistan - 371, including 8 seats reserved for non-Muslims and 66 for women. Sindh follows next with 168 seats, including 9 reserved for non-Muslims and 29 reserved for women. NWFP has 124 seats including 3 reserved for non-Muslims and 22 for women. Balochistan, the biggest province in terms of geography, has only 65 seats with 11 reserved for non-Muslims and women respectively, adding to 65 seats. (See Table 2)

Table 2: Seats for Provincial Assemblies

In the 2002 elections, the PML-Q gained maximum number of seats and formed the government with outside support from other parties and allies including the MQM and MMA. PML-Q was created by the military, after breaking up Nawaz Sharif's PML-N. Elections in 2002 for the National and Provincial Assemblies were considered one of the most unfair in the electoral history of Pakistan, with the military led by General Musharraf openly siding with PML-Q and not providing a level playing field to other major political parties such as the PML-N and PPP. Both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were forced to stay out of Pakistan and their candidates systematically targeted by unfair means to reduce the chances of the leading political parties.

The efforts taken by Musharraf and the military, apart, in 2002, both Bhutto and Sharif also faced the wrath of the people for their failure to strengthen the process of democratic governance in Pakistan. Also in 2002, Gen Musharraf enjoyed greater popularity. Despite these serious hurdles, both PPP and PML-N fared well in the 2002 elections. (See Table 3)

Table 3: Strength of Major Political Parties in the National Assembly (2002 Elections)

In terms of number of votes polled and the percentage of total valid votes, the PPP secured the maximum. The PPP secured more than 28 per cent of the total valid votes polled, better than PML-Q's 26.63 per cent. However, the first-past-the-post-electoral system, witnessed PML-Q gaining 118 seats in the National Assembly, considerably larger than PPP's share of 80 seats. The case is similar in the case of comparison between the MMA and PML-N. Though the PML-N fared marginally better than the MMA in terms of number of seats secured and the percentage of total votes (See Table 3), the final tally in the National Assembly for PML-N was only 18 seats, whereas that of the MMA was 59. The same electoral system also ensured that while the MQM gained only 3.55 per cent of the total votes polled, it still secured 17 seats, only one less than that of PML-N.

To conclude, despite being unfair and not free, the 2002 election results do reveal that the PPP and PML-N fared relatively well. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is now likely to play an important role in deciding the outcome of the 2008 elections. With the PPP deciding to participate and Nawaz Sharif also mobilizing his party, the prospects of PPP and PML-N are much better. Further, with Musharraf's popularity have declined considerably and PML-Q's performance in the last five years being seriously questioned, short of the elections being rigged, the party is unlikely to repeat its 2002 performance. If the elections are relatively free and fair, the MMA too is unlikely to repeat its performance either in terms of number of votes polled or the number of seats in the National Assembly. The MQM's support base in Sindh remains intact and it may be able to secure the same number of votes.