Everyone is convinced that Sri Lanka has slipped back into war. The ceasefire agreement (CFA) has been relegated to paper. The main issue is that both sides prefer the present war situation. The escalation of violence started with the election of Mahinda Rajapakse - who believed in a military solution to the ethnic crisis - as president in late 2005. The LTTE is also to be blamed for the present situation. Firstly, it was instrumental in the defeat of Ranil Wickremasinghe - who initiated the peace process in 2002 - by exhorting Tamils not to vote in the presidential polls ensuring Ranil's defeat. Secondly, the Tigers disregarded the CFA by indulging in assassinations, murders, extortions, child recruitment and so on. Bans by Canada and the European Union in 2006 irritated the LTTE. This caused the ouster of EU monitors from the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), thereby, further weakening the monitoring body. During the ceasefire period, both parties talked peace, but clandestinely prepared for war.

The present state of war is intense; hitherto limited in its spatial spread, the violence is gradually spreading from the east to the north. The LTTE has been facing two frontal attacks: from the Karuna group and from government forces aided by the air force. The Karuna group was instrumental in LTTE reverses in the east. Countries like Pakistan and China have supported the Sri Lankan government in its war effort and present hostilities have led to huge casualties of more than 4000 deaths in addition to generating a large number of internally displaced. Massive human rights violations, as a result of war operations, are scary.

There is presently a strategic shift in the east but transfer of territory from the LTTE to the government in these areas did not help the common people. There is meanwhile, considerable popular support in the south for the government's ongoing 'war for peace' programme. Unfortunately, the majoritarian character of the government with hardliners at the helm does not bode well for peace. The Sri Lankan military is now more closely involved in the political decision-making, which is not healthy for the polity. There is less emphasis on conflict resolution and the latest devolution proposals by the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party is not acceptable by any standard. The split in the opposition United National Party (UNP) has reduced all chances for a 'southern consensus' on the ethnic issue. Parties like the JVP and JHU have been demanding the ouster of Norway from its role as a facilitator. The LTTE too, is equally determined to resist any kind of a negotiated settlement and is not willing to drop its demand for a separate state. This has resulted in a 'withdrawal syndrome' in the international community. The disregard for human rights by the government has led to a sharp decline of international support for the government.

India is paralyzed in its policy towards Sri Lanka. There is too much of caution and New Delhi is hesitant to take a public stand on the present crisis. There is a clear lack of political will. India should have done more on various fronts, particularly on humanitarian issues. By inaction, India is opening up spaces for other players to fill the void in Sri Lanka.

DISCUSSION

War and Peace

The present situation has not changed much from the earlier period. What is going on is an asymmetric warfare. The LTTE is trying to set-up a separate state and to achieve this by military action. It is for this reason it has acquired air power. The Tigers have demonstrated enormous determination and staying power which others lack. Ceasefire is always used by the LTTE to bolster their strength. It has probably killed more Tamils than any other actor on the Island. The current government also does not want peace. It firmly believes that it can settle the issue by inflicting a military defeat on the LTTE. But, military victory may not be possible. What is more likely is that there will be a military stalemate again. This is where international community has a crucial role to play. The only glimmer of hope lies in a genuine devolution package. A true federation in Sri Lanka with which both sides can live with is a viable option. Lessons learnt from the failures of the present ceasefire may well help guide future negotiations.

Options for India

India is certainly paralyzed in its policy towards Sri Lanka. Part of the reason for its helplessness come from coalition compulsions. It is important, however, for India to state its Sri Lanka policy publicly. Every move of India is watched in Sri Lanka and India should take a position. If India cannot react to events in the Island, then it will be sidelined as a player. India has leverage on both the government and the LTTE and it should not hesitate to exercise these leverages. The LTTE will not antagonize India; it will be fatal if it does so. New Delhi should unambiguously convey to the LTTE that if the latter fails to go in for negotiations then India will not hesitate to help the Sri Lankan government. For instance, India can exercise the option of helping to negate the LTTE's air power. To convey this, India should try opening informal channels with the LTTE. It will be bad for India if it does not take a proactive role in Sri Lankan affairs. This does not however, mean that New Delhi should intervene physically. It is also vital for India to make a distinction between the LTTE and other Tamil groups in Sri Lanka.

Status of Media

The media is muzzled in Sri Lanka. There is neither a free media nor independent reporting in the country. Reporting has become part of psychological operations by both the government and the LTTE. All reports emerging from the Island are biased. An objective media cannot exist in the current political environment in Sri Lanka and there are immense threats to journalists who try and report events impartially.