The peace process initiated in October 2005 between the Union government and the ULFA is under threat. The following events in the past three months have strained the process: ULFA's attack on the Guwahati refinery in January 2006; its decision to boycott Republic Day celebrations; bombing of the Republic Day venue in Guwahati, and its subsequent demand of Rs 500 crores from ONGC.

According to a home ministry statement, since October 2005, there have been 70 subversive incidents, including the killing of four army personnel, 12 civilians and 12 militants. These events raise the question as to whether the ULFA be trusted. Can the peace process sustain in such an atmosphere?

The ULFA's main demands are: an end to or suspension of army operations in Assam; release of its top leaders and cadres from prison; information about those captured during the operation in Bhutan; third party mediation in the peace talks; holding talks in international fora like the UN; and the creation of a sovereign, independent Assam. The ULFA has, however, softened on its demands for third party mediation and talks in the UN. Besides, the ULFA has revealed that they will continue their subversive activities if the Union government does not meet its demands.

The ULFA's core emphasis for a 'sovereign, independent Assam', however, stands. It has agreed to give up arms if the Union government meets this demand. The Union is unlikely to do so. The Union has agreed to talk to all insurgents/separatist/militant organisations, provided they first abjure violence and agree to solve their issues within the purview of the Constitution of India. However, the Union government has shown flexibility by discussing the contentious issue of sovereignty "within the purview of the Constitution."

From the ULFA's perspective, incidents like the custodial death of Ajit Mahanta and the killing of eight others in police firings in Kakopathar (Tinsukia district) in February gave an opportunity to justify its position to halt the peace process. Repeated appeals from the Peoples Consultative Group (PCG) and the Union government to stop their ongoing violent activities have fallen on deaf ears.

The ULFA's antagonism towards the peace process is manifest and akin to its rejection of the 'safe passage' offer made by the Assam chief minister in January. Then, the state government announced a 14-day ceasefire from 7 January 2006 to create a congenial atmosphere for direct talks, where ULFA cadres were permitted to visit their families during Bhogali Bihu (a harvest festival in Assam) based on the condition of prior intimation of authorities. However, the ULFA expressed its unwillingness to avail such offers by calling it a political gimmick. Such a proposal is not new; the state government offered the same in 1991 to top leaders of ULFA to meet the then Prime Minister, PV Narasimha Rao. Again, the AGP government in 1999 offered a 10-day safe passage. Around 250 militants responded to this offer.

The ULFA's bid to malign the peace process is explicable. After the ONGC extortion note, the ULFA issued another extortion demand of Rs 25 lakhs to an independent candidate in the upcoming election, Bijoy Krishna Nath. ULFA's intention is clear now; the statement released by top ULFA leaders in its mouthpiece, Swadhinata, also conveys ULFA's unreliability as a partner in the peace process. The ULFA stated that its struggle for an independent homeland remains intact and reiterated that the struggle against "Indian colonial rulers" would intensify. The statement urged the people to support their "valiant revolutionary fighters."

Both, the ULFA and the government, are under pressure from civil society organisations to reach a negotiated settlement. The Peoples Committee for Peace initiative - conglomeration of 21 civil society group organisations - adopted a resolution during a mass rally in Guwahati on 30 January 2006 to appeal for a "justice-oriented solution without compromising the dignity of the Assamese people and the demand for the restoration of sovereignty to ULFA." This means that possibly the civil society organisations are in favour of ULFA's sovereignty demand or autonomy in the state.

For a negotiated settlement in Assam, there must be mutual abandonment of certain conditions/demands from the both sides and an effort to create a congenial atmosphere for negotiations. The ULFA must stop violence and the government must rethink about army operations against the ULFA. The government suspects that if the army operations are suspended, the ULFA might regroup and continue its subversive activities. The peace process would be successful if the ULFA reconsiders its so called core issue of a sovereign independent Assam.