In Japan’s post-Shinzo Abe era, the old days of frequent changes in top leaders appears to have arrived again. This will have implications for the country’s domestic as well as its foreign policy. Japan needs continuity and credibility in its top leadership particularly with global power transitions intensifying and becoming more complex. Unfortunately, this looks to be elusive after Shinzo Abe. Shigeru Ishiba is Japan’s third prime minister in the past four years. While the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its institutions still retain power and there is consistency in broader foreign policy, frequent changes in leadership complicate vision articulation, messaging to both friends and foes, and follow-up action on policies.

Newly elected Prime Minister Ishiba is considered to be a “maverick” in Japanese politics. He is a five-time candidate for the top post within the LDP, has held several important positions including defence minister, and himself claims to be a security expert. He also says that he reads three books a day, runs a YouTube channel, and has written a piece on his policy priorities published by the US-based Hudson Institute. His current success, however, can be largely attributed to the LDP’s old guard, who believe that for now, he will give the LDP a better chance in the upcoming October 2024 general elections. Speculations suggest that post-election, Ishiba may either be sidelined by the old guard as he doesn’t come from the LDP’s large factions, or that he may himself have to relinquish his position because of mistakes.

Ishiba hurriedly announced his policy priorities after entering office. These include measures to address Japan’s demographic crisis because of the low birth rate and an aging population, and his  support for the establishment of a NATO-like structure in Asia, in which the US-Japan alliance would be the lynchpin. In his own words, “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia,” and the security situation in Asia is “the most severe since the end of World War II.” Ishiba was Japan’s defence minister from 2007-2009 but his tenure was not special. Recent sharp statements on security are more likely an attempt to carve out political space for himself and prevent the party’s old guard from sidelining him. Though called “anti-Abe” within the party—because he contested against Shinzo Abe several times—he now appears to be following Abe’s style of leadership, with big domestic and foreign policy announcements. It will be interesting to see if Ishiba is also able to emulate Abe’s success in getting his point across credibly.

Shinzo Abe cemented his leadership credentials through his ‘‘Abenomics’’ on the domestic front and Indo-Pacific strategy on the regional front. Ishiba appears to be trying the same approach to create a niche for himself, by making bold statements about Japan’s demographic crisis and an ‘Asian NATO’. This approach, however, isn’t easy. With a national debt that is 265 percent of GDP, and it won’t be easy for Ishiba to focus on or deal with the demographic crisis. Similarly, an Asian NATO also doesn’t sound feasible as important regional actors, who are also members of ASEAN and the Quad, don’t seem keen on the idea at this moment. So even as Ishiba adopts Abe’s approach, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to have the same effect.

Shigeru Ishiba as Japan’s prime minister essentially means that the LDP is projecting a popular face for the upcoming elections. This is necessary because of the allegations of corruption within the party, and in all probability, he won’t continue for too long in this position after the LDP is able to secure victory in the elections. Ishiba, however, appears to be resolute in using this opportunity to strengthen his position and make himself politically viable in the long run. The question is whether Ishiba will be able to survive as prime minister, or the old days of short-term prime ministers in Japan are indeed back.

Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra is Professor, Centre for East Asian Studies, SIS, JNU, & Distinguished Fellow, IPCS.