The announcement of the six-month long ceasefire on 15 April 2004 with two prominent factions of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), following official level negotiations at Delhi, could be the harbinger of peace in the state. There are signs that the initiation of the negotiation process is forcing the other active terrorists to rethink their strategy.

Nayanbashi Jamatiya, commander-in-chief of an NLFT faction signed a ceasefire agreement following a tripartite meeting with the central and the state government representatives on 15 April in New Delhi. Prior to the agreement, the Nayanbasi faction of the NLFT was active in the Takarjala, Golaghati, Harilam and Pramodenagar areas of the state. In fact, Nayanbashi dithered for months on a possible surrender as the state government refused to accede to his demands of rehabilitation. The long wait for Nayanbashi to make up his mind finally ended as several key actors made the rebel leader see reason in a negotiated settlement to the dispute. The long wait also proved beneficial as another NLFT factional leader Montu Koloi too joined the New Delhi peace talks. Following the ceasefire agreement, Montu Koloi led 72 NLFT cadres to surrender on 6 May.

The All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), active in the Khowai, Kamalpur and parts of Sadar subdivision of the state, has also indicated its desire to join the peace bandwagon with three conditions. The move was welcomed by the Chief Minister of the state. The conditions outlined are:

·         Those who had entered Tripura after 1949 and whose names did not figure in the voters list of 1952 should be declared as foreigners.

·         The issue of sovereignty must figure in the negotiation process.

·         A representative of the UNPO should be present during the peace talk.

These developments have the capability of restoring order in the state. This leaves two factions of the NLFT: led by Biswamohan Debbarma and Joshua Debbarma, outside the peace net and reports suggest that there have been attempts to forge a common front among them. Fissions within the insurgent outfits have been a major obstacle in the way of conflict resolution in the state. Track record of insurgency suggests that new outfits have been formed by disgruntled rebel leaders in the prospect of a mass surrender of the parent outfit. In fact, NLFT, born in the year 1989, has suffered at least three splits due to factors like personal ambitions. The NLFT, however, now faces a bleak prospect of revival as many of its top commanders including vice president Kamini Debbarma, Finance Secretary Bishnuprasad Jamatiya, Deputy Finance Secretary Dhanu Koloi, Chief of Army Binoy Debbarma and Deputy Chief of Army Sanjoy Debbarma surrendered on 6 May.  

The other factor, which has been a thorn in the resolution of insurgency in Tripura, has been the role of Bangladesh. All the top leaders of the terrorist outfits live in that country and receive overt and covert assistance from various power centres in the country working at the behest of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan. Such nexus is an important factor behind the lethality of the Biswamohan faction of the NLFT, active in Kanchanpur, Kulai, Chawmanu, Raimvalley and Ampinagar areas of Tripura. Over the years, the militant outfits have achieved tremendous sophistication in the use of arms and techniques such as laying of ambushes. Tripura shares a border that is 856 kms long with Bangladesh, most of which are porous. Militants sneak into the state at will, operate for a couple of months and are then replaced by another group. The central government’s efforts to ensure that Bangladesh acted against the militants have met with no success so far.

Even though the terms under which the militants agreed to come over ground have not been made clear, a fact which the opposition Congress party in the state has taken objection to, the achievements of the state police in bringing a large number of militants to the mainstream remain significant. However, there is still no room for complacency as the active militants, now drive to the wall, have all the more reason to demonstrate their nuisance value. On 16 May, six Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were killed in an ambush by the NLFT cadres in a remote place bordering the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) area of Bangladesh. The change of guard in New Delhi too brings in an amount of uncertainty to the terms of surrender and might induce the surrendered militants to rethink. These factors must be kept in mind by the authorities negotiating for peace in Tripura.