Estimates regarding internally displaced persons (IDP) in the northeast due to prolonged insurgency remain scarce. Even though literature on the dynamics and impact of conflict has been substantial, objective research in terms of assessing induced migration is yet to be executed by either governmental or non-governmental agencies.

The Tripura state Revenue Minister, in a statement in the Legislative Assembly, on 24 September 2003, quoted IDP figures in the state, in what could be the first such attempt by any state government in the region to assess the scale of physical movement of people due to militancy. The minister said, “Between March 1998 to February 2003, 19,468 families have been displaced from their original places”.. If each family is estimated to have five members, the total number of people displaced would be around 98,000, roughly amounting to more than three per cent of the state’s total population.

According to an estimate in 2003, nearly 650,000 persons have been displaced due to conflicts in Jammu and Kashmir, the Northeast and Gujarat. Even though, scale of internal displacement in the northeast is a subdued affair compared to the continuing conflict in Jammu & Kashmir or to the heyday of terrorism in Punjab, the key factor lies in its continuity. Each passing year, the number of ethnic conflicts multiplies adding to flight of people in search of safer locations.

Following are a few examples of significant recent internal displacements in the region. In the month of November 2003, nearly five thousand Khasi-Pnar tribals fled into Sahsniang area of Jaintia hills in Meghalaya from the Karbi Anglong district of Assam after they were threatened of attack by militants. Between October and November 2003, another 5000 Kukis fled to Manipur and Nagaland as the Kuki-Karbi relations in Karbi Anglong district hit rock bottom. In November 2003, hundreds of Hindi-speaking people left Assam in the wake of the backlash that followed attacks on the train passengers of northeast India in various places of Bihar.

Compared to the gravity of the problem, attempts to map the internal wars in terms of the impact of militancy, inter-ethnic or even intra-ethnic clashes on the livelihood aspect of people remain limited. The state governments display a tendency to shy away from projecting figures, lest it will reflect on their (in)capability to handle the situation. No estimate is available on the recent flight of the Hindi-speaking people from the northeast, particularly from Assam. Even years after the Bodo-Santhal clashes in the districts of lower Assam, neither the government nor the private agencies possess accurate data on the number of people displaced from their original villages. A standard and perhaps convenient practice has been to adopt a head counting of the people who ultimately find their way to the relief camps. However, such approach closes its eyes on the population who choose to migrate out of the locale of violence to the urban centres of the state and mingle with the general populace.

The lack of effort on part of the government has also been a reason for the circulation of seemingly inaccurate displacement figures. The information on IDP by the Norwegian Refugee Council, made available through its database on the ‘Global Displacement Figures: 2000-2003’ is a useful compilation in that it lists IDP figures under two special categories: Lowest and the Highest estimates of IDPs found in sources.  According to the database, in the year 2003, the lowest estimate of IDPs in Assam is 87,000 Santhals, where as the highest estimate touches the 200,000 mark.  Separately, for the same year, the lowest estimate of displaced Bengali population in Tripura is 28,000 (state government data) whereas the highest estimate is to the tune of 150,000, a figure that circulates among the local media.

The root of the problem, however, is not the sourcing of the figures, which remain grossly fabricated, promoted as they are either by various parties having a stake in the conflict situation, or even by ignorant news agencies lies in the absence of a correct estimate of the IDP situation in the region.

Of late, there has been considerable research activity on various aspects of conflict in the region. However, all such analysis, in the absence of accurate data, run into the danger of reinforcing stereotypes. The situation is further complicated by the lack of an IDP policy on part of the Union Government. As a result, concerns of the displaced lot are subjected to the whims and the fancies of the concerned state governments.

No doubt, the nature, frequency and extent of the causes of internal displacement in the region are too varied to be monitored and recorded systematically. However creating and maintaining a database on IDP in the northeast is an important initial step in understanding the gravity of the situation.