It has not been long since Pakistan and India proffered the mutual olive branch by signing Lahore declaration and getting together at Agra. Lahore and Agra came to naught.  Come 2004 and India and Pakistan started all over again. The setting this time was in Islamabad.

The summit has ushered in an aura of great expectations in Islamabad.  The press and the people appear euphoric. The Jamali government is taking it as a feather in their cap. As for President Musharraf, he claims to be a “happy man”. The SAARC summit is being perceived as a harbinger of peace in the region.  What has been the secret ingredient is difficult to gauge at this point, but it would be safe to say that an unprecedented show of political will reigned supreme over the stumbling blocks that had hindered peace in the past. 

People are anxiously looking ahead. They want to know how Kashmir would be resolved.  Would the LOC be conceded to India as a status quo? What is Pakistan’s share of the pie? What about arms control and disarmament? What has made the Indians tick? Do they really mean business?

Amongst the highly commendable achievements of the historic SAARC summit is the agreement on the South Asian Social Charter: a grassroots strategy for economic development.  A draft agreement on SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Agreement) has also been worked out.  To add to the list, an Additional Protocol on the Regional Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism has been signed by the seven member nations.

In Pakistan the most notable and prized outcome of the summit however, is India’s willingness to talk about Kashmir. This alone gives the Pakistanis so much to look forward to.  After all if it was not for Kashmir we would be able to spend our energies and resources on more meaningful pursuits. The Kashmir conflict has rendered the entire region vulnerable and susceptible to a potential nuclear holocaust. It was therefore quite appropriate for the SAARC forum to introduce the issue on the agenda for dialogue.  Kashmir cannot really be de-linked from a regional integration initiative.  As long as the two nuclear powers continue to brow beat each other, the regional dynamics will remain highly unstable and volatile.  With continuous border skirmishes, a year long military standoff and Kargil, in the not so distant past, leaving Kashmir unresolved is flirting with clear and present danger.  The massive deployment of troops in the Indian held Kashmir is also not an indication of good will on the part of the Indians and keeps Pakistan in a state of high alert. Putting Kashmir on the backburner therefore has not been a realistic and practicable strategy as far as regional integration and especially economic cooperation between India and Pakistan is concerned.  India has concerns regarding cross-border terrorism which need to addressed adequately by Pakistan as well.

However, now that the two countries have agreed to address the “K” word what next?  What are the parties hoping for? What kind of concessions are they willing to make to each other?  More importantly where and how would the will of the people of Kashmir figure in? How do the statesmen plan to appease the hardliners in their respective countries?

Despite all the optimism in the air, one still wonders what will make it work this time.  After all, it’s the same Prime Minister Vajpayee who took a bus ride to Lahore to shake hands with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif.  It was the same Mr. Vajpayee who had graciously hosted an eager President Musharraf in the shadows of the placating Taj Mahal and sent him back with a mission unfulfilled.  Vajpayee and Musharraf now have seen each other through thick and thin.  They have been through the unprecedented highs and lows of a relationship that must not be damaged any further. Too close for comfort and quite uncomfortable still. India and Pakistan cannot avoid each other much as they try. The new year seems to be heralding a new beginning for the future of South Asia. The Pakistani establishment is rejoicing in the knowledge that Indians have agreed to talk. That in it self is victory. But with the prevalence of Indian hawks, how could the dovish Vajpayee sell the idea of a compromise on Kashmir. He may be well on his way to a Nobel Peace Prize, but then just ahead of the Indian elections, how much room does he have to negotiate with Pakistan? Summits have always been encouraging but history proves that in the case of India and Pakistan, the love lasts as long as the holiday does.

Well perhaps our leaders need to plan more vacations together on both sides of the divide.  It is time to be honest and sincere to each other, to be aware of our mistakes and the hurdles that lie ahead.  It is time to put people first, and engage constructively for the sake of posterity.  It is also imperative for the Indian and Pakistani policy makers to ensure that Kashmiris are involved in the peace initiative at the outset. Pakistan and India are at the cross roads once again.  We shall wait and see how the ball is rolled.