After being in power for more than twenty years, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus for Moscow on 8 December 2024. Multiple coalitions, involving both moderate and radical militias, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took over most of western Syria in a surprise rebel campaign that lasted thirteen days. The end of the Assad dynasty, the end of pseudo-Baathist rule in Syria, and the establishment of a new government in Damascus came after nearly thirteen years of civil war. Within this tenuous environment, there are growing concerns about the position of two actors with long-standing stakes in the politics of Syria, Iran and Russia. 

Tehran and Moscow appear to share a common vision of geopolitics in West Asia and over the last two decades, have worked in concert to develop a complementary position in the region. In fact, the two signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership pact in 2025, only a month after the HTS rebellion. This pact covers many areas of cooperation and marks their desire for greater levels of coordination. The two powers, and their involvement in the ‘business’ of Syria, have been motivated by both ideological and geopolitical imperatives. With the fall of al-Assad, however, these imperatives are now in peril. 

This Issue Brief by Dr. Muneer Ahmed and Siddharth Anil Nair outlines Tehran and Moscow’s investments in Damascus over the past decade and their recent losses. It offers a background on Russia’s and Iran’s historical relations with Syria; an outline of the implications of HTS’ emergence; and finally, an evaluation of these developments on Russia and Iran’s geopolitical ambitions in the region and their relations with regional actors like Türkiye and Israel.