On 5 August 2024, then Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee1 her country in the wake of powerful pan-nation protests. Student-led demonstrations, initially sparked by the reinstatement of a judicially imposed quota system, escalated dramatically following the government’s heavy-handed response. The arbitrary arrest and detention of student leaders, disproportionate use of force by security agencies, and over 300 civilian deaths, fuelled the unrest. This ultimately evolved into a nationwide movement demanding Hasina’s resignation. The decisive ‘March to Dhaka,’ in which citizens from across the country converged on the capital, and the military’s refusal to use force to quell the protest, finally led to Hasina’s hasty resignation and departure.

On 8 August 2024, an interim caretaker government, with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as its chief adviser, took charge. The 17-member, military-backed, interim government has been tasked with restoring peace in the country and eventually conducting free and fair elections. This government has several prominent members including economists, legal experts, and human rights activists, many of whom have been outspoken critics of Hasina.

This IPCS Special Report authored by Fiona Raval, Dr. Muneer Ahmed, Prerana Priyadarshi, and Tapan Bharadwaj proceeds in three sections. The first section focuses on the primary contenders to power in Bangladesh, their historical relevance, and future political expectations. This segues into the next section, which evaluates the role and interests of external players. Reading sections 1 and 2 together can shed light on what a new Bangladeshi political leadership would mean for external stakeholders. The final section analyses the implications of political change within Bangladesh for specific external stakeholder interests.