The US has decided to go with its military offensive against Iraq unilaterally. Why?  Ostensibly to protect American security interests in the Gulf. Whether this war is ethical or legal is not the focus of this article, but would it ensure American security objectives in the Gulf region?

Will the US succeed in establishing a credible and stable alternative to Saddam Hussein in Iraq?  Or, to quote Bush, will the US make Iraq “an inspiring example of freedom for other nations”? The Americans believe that Saddam is a hated figure inside Iraq, whose regime has been repressive and anti-democratic. The Iraqi population is divided. The Shias in Southern Iraq, where they form a majority, have been silenced over years and so have been the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Adding to this ethnic division are the post Gulf War I sanctions, which has resulted in a deterioration of the economic condition of the population. American strategists interpret these facts in their favour and they expect the American forces to enter Iraq as liberators and the angels of democracy.

If Saddam is a hated figure, so are the Americans inside Iraq. The economic plight of the Iraqis is largely due to the sanctions regime imposed by the US led international community. Hence the Americans would be considered as invaders, since war would affect the daily lives of the Iraqis worse than by the Saddam led regime in terms of human lives lost and human rights violations. Therefore, any government installed by the Americans would be seen as outsiders.

Assuming that the US topples the Saddam regime and installs an alternative, it would remain unstable. Whether Saddam is killed or replaced, a section will always be loyal to him. Saddam has won the loyalties of his Baathists through economic incentives. The armed forces, including the police, will remain loyal to him, and could be the major source of protests, political and violent, against the US established government. How big this section is can only be determined when the war begins. If the post Saddam government fails to fulfill popular expectations, this section will increase. Given this situation, any future regime in post Saddam Iraq will be highly unstable. The history of past US efforts proves that it has always been on the wrong side.

Will the US efforts make Iraq a democratic country? Unfortunately, the answer is no. The American and Soviet efforts in Iran and Afghanistan in the late 1970s, instead of bringing a popular government, paved the way for a fundamentalist takeover. Like Iran and Afghanistan, Iraq is predominantly a tribal nation, consequently the removal of Saddam would create a political void, which will naturally be filled by the rightist forces. Whether the US establishes democracy or not, it is providing fertile grounds for rightist forces to grow in Iraq, which is the most secular of all the Muslim countries.

Will the war on Iraq secure the American interests in the Persian Gulf? One of the stated objectives of the US is to protect its oil interests in the region. The war against Saddam, may in the short run secure US oil interests, but may adversely affect it in the long run. The threat of war has increased anti-American feelings in the Gulf region, and this will make the respective governments cautious about aligning closely with the US. How long will countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait support US interests against the wishes of its own people?

Besides the local population, there are signs that even the countries currently supporting the US are becoming wary of the US. General Musharraf had already made a statement that after Iraq, Pakistan could be next. The Bush administration has succeeded in creating doubts among its allies in the Gulf that would affect American security interests in the long run.

Does Bush have any other option left? Sadly, no. Saddam will be remembered among the Iraqis and the Muslims, either as a Hero, if he withstands the American onslaught, or as a martyr, if he loses. On the contrary, Bush, whether he wins or loses, will always be remembered as the villain whether he proceeds militarily against Saddam or not. May be that is what is guiding Bush now. Win the battle now at any cost, as the war will be lost any way!