As of 16 November 2002, nearly a month after the October 2002 elections and the elected MNAs taking oath under the 1973 Constitution, there is still no sight of any coalition forming the government. Fractured verdict apart, unprincipled negotiations by major political parties to form a governing coalition are the main hurdles towards forming the government. These negotiations are not only for forming a government at the national level but also at the provincial levels; for example, the PPP would find it difficult to form any government in Sindh without the MQM’s help and the MMA cannot form a government in Baluchistan without PML-Q’s assistance or vice-versa.

  In any democracy alliances are formed with minimum agreements on certain issues based on certain shared history among the partners. Ever since October 10, the political parties have been trying any number of permutation and combinations with the sole objective of forming the government with total disregard for political morality. 

  The elections witnessed a quadrilateral contest, one led by the liberal but pro regime PML (Q), the second led by the religious but anti regime MMA, the third by liberal but anti regime PPPP and PML (N) and finally the liberal but anti regime, anti PPPP and anti PML (N) MQM. 

  The PPP is the main culprit, as it gave up all principles in dealing with the situation. The main objectives of the PPP are to form a government at the national level with Makhdoom Amin Faheem as the Prime Minister and to negotiate with anybody, who would agree to the return of Benazir Bhutto and the release of Asif Zardari. While the first condition is negotiable, the second is totally non-negotiable. At the provincial level, the main objective of the PPP is to form the government in Sindh and a coalition in Punjab. With these being the primary objectives, political morality and decency have become secondary for the PPP. 

  Right from the beginning, the party was talking to both the military regime (and PML-Q) and the MMA. As a part of the ARD, it was dealing with the MMA, while at the same time, the PPP was also negotiating independently with the military regime. Thus the PPP was pursuing a twin policy. The Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) led by Nawabzada Nasruallah almost finalised a deal with the MMA, by the end of October. However, the deal came to a dead end, when Benazir Bhutto, during the first week of November, suddenly backed from supporting Fazlur Rahman from MMA to become the next Prime Minister. The PPP, then has struck a deal with PML-Q and the regime, according to which the Asif Zardari was to be released and Amin Faheem to be made as the Prime Minister. Zardari, who has been in jail for the last six years was granted bail, during the second week of November.

  Two factors remained crucial for the PPP to work for a deal with the PML-Q than with the MMA. First was the threat of forward block within the PPP, led by Faisal Saleh Hayat, who was found favoring the formation of a national government with the PML-Q. The PPP leadership understood that any further proceedings with the MMA would lead to a split in the party, especially from its Punjab MNAs. Second was the release of Zardari and the return of Benazir Bhutto. It was crystal clear that the second factor would not happen without the military regime. 

  However, PPP-PML-Q deal collapsed suddenly as the military regime, despite releasing Zardari, rejected Makhdoom Amin Faheem candidature as the Prime Minister all of a sudden. Four reasons could be attributed to this change. First, by the second week, the regime was sure of a split in the PPP. With support from MQM, PPP forward block and independents, the PML-Q could form the government. During the second week of November, ten MNAs formed the forward block, to deal with the formation of a national government, despite affirming support to Benazir Bhutto!

  Second reason was the internal struggle in PML-Q. By the second week of November, a section of the MNAs had established contacts with Nawaz Sharif to shift over to PML-N, as they were getting a raw deal. Jamali, the PML-Q candidate was also insisting that only he would be made the next Prime Minister. Thirdly, with the ARD-MMA broken down, there was no need for the military regime to woo the PPP. The MMA by then had clearly announced that it would not deal anymore with the PPP and even Nawabzada Narullah was totally upset over Benazir’s unprincipled politics. Fourthly, the MMA, by now has come down over its demands, especially over the LFO and was willing to negotiate with PML-Q.

  Now the PPP stands alienated as neither the MMA nor PML-Q willing to negotiate with it. However, given the developments in the last three weeks, nothing remains certain in Pakistan. The political situation was so fluid during the first two weeks of November that any editorial in the newspaper on the political understandings looked either outdated or totally wrong.