"All is changed utterly,” wrote the Irish critic, playwright and poet of the modern age, WB Yeats, some seventy years ago. 

  A year has passed since September 11, which changed the world and the international order. In the war against terror, old allies came together, and new enemies were created. Pakistan, which was considered a failing state in US foreign policy circles, and was suffering from increasing global isolation, regained the “most allied ally of the US” status. 

  The US war against the Taliban and its hunt for the alleged mastermind of 9/11, Osama bin Laden, made Pakistan a very important partner in the global alliance against terrorism. Pakistan was in a position to provide the US with vital intelligence which made it necessary for the United States to renew its diplomatic and military relationship with Islamabad. Air sorties from aircraft carriers or from the US air base in Diego Garcia had to overfly Pakistani territory, and therefore required its permission. 

  Pakistan wanted to change its Afghanistan policy under General Musharraf, which had which proved to be influctuous. General Musharraf’s address to the gathering of the pious celebrating the birthday of the Holy Prophet PBUH on 5 June 2001, and the foreign policy documents which appeared after the fall of the Taliban are clear indicators that Islamabad was reconsidering its position before 9/11. This event provided the immediate reason. But, one has to accept that there were other factors, such as the $38 billion dollar debt and Pakistan’s ability to meet upcoming repayments being in doubt. Also General Musharraf had not succeeded in bolstering his regime’s international legitimacy. Above all, President Musharraf correctly calculated that if Pakistan did not cooperate with the United States, the Vajpayee administration, which was steadily improving its ties with the United States, would try to marginalize Pakistan. At worst, Pakistan itself could be targeted. General Musharraf in his televised address to the nation on September 19 gave three reasons for joining the alliance: the security of Pakistan, Kashmir and the Nuclear Program. He said, “At this juncture, I am worried about Pakistan only,” and that “I give top priority to the defense of Pakistan.” Clearly, President Musharraf safe guarded these and also managed to end his international isolation to come across as a popular leader. He also succeeded in obtaining promises of American assistance totaling almost one billion dollars. 

  One year after 9/11, General Musharraf is preparing to fulfill his promise of holding elections in the country. About six weeks before the elections, President Musharraf announced a new constitutional framework in which the President will have powers to dismiss the Parliament, and the military will play a role in the country’s power structure. These provisions have been there in the past also, in one form or the other. 

  The elections are a week away, but political activity in the country is minimal. The political fragmentation and absence of any strong and charismatic leadership is a major factor. A month before the elections, speculation over the possibility of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (N) coming together against the PML (QA) died out. Both parties failed to work out an overall election adjustment. Now, one hears about seat adjustments at the local level. The recent PML (N) move to revive itself by electing Shahbaz Sharif as President and repeatedly promising the return of the party’s exiled leaders has borne no fruits. The return of Benazir and Nawaz or Shahbaz Sharif would be a huge bonus for their parties, but that is unlikely at this stage. 

  It is likely therefore that PML (QA) will form the government in Punjab. Muttahid Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) might give a tough fight to its political rivals in the tribal belt and some parts of NWFP and Baluchistan, but is unlikely to emerge as a major political actor. MQM might emerge as the victor in urban Sindh. What will be the position of the (PML N) will be interesting because, for the first time in its history, it will be contesting the elections without the support of the establishment. The absence of its leadership and the defection of its top leaders to PML (QA) have also taken their toll. 

  The Pakistan People’s Party under the leadership of its new chairman, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, may still have a few surprises in store. Overall, it is most likely that the October elections will produce a hung parliament. This may not be an ideal arrangement but it could be the first step towards the restoration of democracy in the country.