The upcoming 16^th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will bring a generational change in the Party's leadership. It is widely expected that President Jiang Zemin will pass on the leadership of the Party and the State to Hu Jintao. At present, Hu holds all the important posts in the Party and the Government, which guarantees him support from both quarters. He is the Vice President of the People's Republic of China, Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission and PRC Central Military Commission, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, and Member of the Secretariat of the15th CCP Central Committee and finally, President of CCP's Party School. Deng Xiaoping saw the leadership potential in Hu Jintao and indicated that he could be a possible successor to Jiang Zemin.

Hu, a hydraulic engineer by training, joined the CCP in 1964. His rise in the Party was rapid. He was appointed member of the CPC Central Committee in 1982, and was the youngest member of the Committee. Again, when he was appointed Secretary of the CCP's Guizhou Provincial Committee, he was its youngest member. In 1992, he became the youngest member of the Politburo's Standing Committee. In the past ten years, he has been groomed for the job by serving in important party and government posts, which is a departure from earlier succession struggles within the CCP.

Indeed, the history of the CCP has been marked by repeated succession crises. The personality cult during Mao Zedong's regime ensured that no alternate or second rung leadership was allowed to develop. Therefore, despite its massive organization, there are no institutions in the CCP to groom younger cadres for future leadership responsibilities; they could only hitch on to political heavyweights. The CCP has not been able to shake-off this patron-client relationship in its polity.? Even now, the anointing of successors to high political commissar and military commander posts is pretty much the personalized decision of a handful of top political leaders in the Party. Further, the desolving of the leadership to the next generation has occurred only after the death of the paramount leader who remained the centre of power even after retirement. Both Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping influenced Chinese politics upto their deaths.?

During the upcoming Party Congress, if the transition from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao is made smoothly, it will be an epoch-making event in Chinese politics. This transition will test the efficacy of the institutional structures put in place by Deng Xiaoping to facilitate a smooth transfer of power within the CCP. Hu's official profile in the People's Daily projects his rapid rise to the top as evidence of the Party's long endeavour to cultivate and promote young cadres. It will also be of crucial importance to see whether Jiang Zemin retains his position as the Chief of the Central Military Commission that gives him control of the PLA.

It can, however, be said with some certainty that Hu Jintao will continue the program of economic liberalization initiated by Deng Xiaoping and consolidated by Jiang Zemin. Little is known of his political views on issues of strategic concern. On his visit to the United States earlier this year, Hu expressed a desire to strengthen ties with the US, but he did not depart from the government line on any issue, including Taiwan and Tibet.?

Hu Jintao has served in China's northwest provinces, Gansu and Guizhou and Tibet. His experience in these areas distinguishes him from other leaders of his generation. Notably, he was the first civilian Party head of the Tibet Autonomous region, known for its heavy concentration of PLA forces. His tenure in Tibet was seen as a toughening course to prepare him for future leadership responsibilities in Beijing. Hu was appointed Party Chief in Tibet in 1988 amidst pro-democracy protests in Lhasa. It was perceived by the Party that the liberal policies of Hu's predecessor in Tibet, Wu Jinghua, was largely responsible for this "turmoil". Martial law was declared in Lhasa, and Hu distinguished himself by bringing the situation under control. This was a politically sensitive time in China with the Tiananmen Square demonstrations occurring later that summer, with the Party being in no mood to tolerate or negotiate with protestors. Upon his departure from Tibet in 1992, Hu approved the appointment of Chen Kuiyuan, a hardliner, as his successor.

However, despite his role in quelling the demonstration, Hu Jintao is viewed by the Dalai Lama's government-in-exile as being a reasonable leader with first hand experience of Tibet and it problems. Though it is too early to predict any change in China's Tibet policy, Hu's accession to the top spot might open a window of opportunity for talks between the Chinese and Tibetan leaders.