A major question during the last week (19-25 August 2002) was whether Benazir Bhutto would return to Pakistan and lead her party in the forthcoming elections. The military regime has categorically stated that Benazir would be arrested as soon as she lands in Pakistan.

     The military regime has enacted a series of legal measures, mainly to prevent Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from leading their respective parties. Under them, any individual who has been convicted by a court of law to a jail term for two years, is not eligible to hold any party office (Political Parties Amendment Ordinance). It was followed up by another amendment, which bars individuals, who have been Prime Ministers or Chief Ministers for two terms from holding the same office again. Recently, the Conduct of General Election Order was amended to prevent individuals who have been absconding from contesting the elections. All these measures are clearly Benazir specific to prevent her from becoming the Prime Minister, and even contesting the elections.

     The military regime is shaken over reports that the PPP would win the forthcoming elections and form the government both at the provincial and national levels. With the success of any pro-military alliance doubtful, due to various reasons, the regime wants to arrest Benazir the moment she lands in Pakistan.

     The significant question is whether she would return, though she had filed her nomination papers. Nobody, even inside her own party, seems to be sure of her return to Pakistan, though there is much expectation, like in 1986, that she would return and lead the Party in the forthcoming elections. In 1986, Benazir returned from London much against the wishes of the military ruler Zia-ul Haq and led her party to win the elections. However, even her party members agree, 2002 is not 1986. When she returned in 1986, a series of events followed inside Pakistan, which was helpful to Benazir and her party. On the internal front, Zia was killed in an aircrash and the military regime lacked a cohesive policy thereafter. On the external front, the war in Afghanistan was reaching an end after Gorbachev’s entry; the subsequent end of the Cold War, reduced the significance of the Pakistan military in the US strategic calculus. Today, the scene is different. Musharraf is seen as a close ally in the American war on terrorism and it is unlikely that there will be any support for the return of democracy within Pakistan, at the cost of its relationship with the military regime. Besides, Benazir is also not the same person now as she was in 1986. She was then seen as a young and clean politician and people were openly supporting her return. Today, her image has been considerably tainted and there is not much enthusiasm for her outside her party. Though there is considerable dis-satisfaction among the people against the military regime, this has yet to get translated into pro-Benazir sentiments.

     Given these conditions, Benazir is also confused whether she should return or not. She is well aware that her presence inside Pakistan would benefit her party, but she is also aware that she would be arrested the moment she enters Pakistan. Now the question is whether she could transform her arrest and detainment in her favour; and whether she would be able to stir up public sympathy into votes for her party.

     Her return would undoubtedly help her party in the forthcoming elections, irrespective of her being arrested. Psychologically, it would boost the image of the PPP (now PPPP) as also her personal image. By sitting a thousand miles away from Pakistan and functioning through remote control will not help her individually nor her party collectively. Benazir is aware of this factor.

     But what is weighing in her mind is the lack of any international support. If there is even some guarantee by influential powers that they would ensure that the elections are conducted freely and she gets a fair trial, she would return. This guarantee, given the significance of the military regime to the US led war against terrorism, is unlikely.

     Will she return? Only she knows. And she is confused.