Who or what constitutes the real threat to the forthcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir? The Union government seems to believe that it emanates from three sources.

     First, the separatist leaders, led by the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), because they have refused all efforts made by the Union government directly or indirectly to make them participate in the elections.

     Second, the threat, according to the government, comes from the militants. Various militant groups under the banner of the United Jihad Council (UJC), with it head quarters in Muzaffarabad, have issued veiled threats to the people. The UJC has also asked the Hurriyat to issue an open poll boycott. In the previous elections, the Hurriyat announced its boycott openly, and campaigned door-to-door against voting. The Hurriyat, has not announced such a boycott till date, despite pressure from the UJC and the Pakistani leadership.

     The final threat, according to the Union government comes from Pakistan. Recently, beginning with General Musharraf, there have been a number of statements on the fairness of the elections conducted by the Indian government. They have repeatedly emphasised that a plebiscite is the only available option to solve the problem in Kashmir. These efforts are meant to assure the Kashmiris and the separatist leadership that Pakistan has not abandoned them, and to gather international support for a plebiscite or at least the holding of elections under international observation, which India wants to avoid.

     But a closer look into this issue reveals that the Union government’s threat perception regarding the forthcoming elections is flawed. No doubt, these three factors constitute a threat to the elections, but focusing exclusively on them is actually blinding oneself, to see better. The Hurriyat is not all powerful, as its support base in the rural areas is weak. Outside Srinagar, the Hurriyat may not be able to win even a few seats if it contests. Besides, as compared to the National Conference, the Hurriyat does not have a well-knit organization at the grass-roots level. Only a section of the Hurriyat has a grass-roots presence, but only in select pockets.

     The militants may attack and kill a few people, but believing that they would kill or physically harm everybody in a district or a tehsil or even in a village is erroneous. With the security forces present everywhere in the Valley, the utmost they could do is strike in remote villages. And all that Pakistan could do to disrupt the elections would be done through the Hurriyat and the militants.

     The real threat to the elections emanates from the people in Kashmir. A vital question is whether they would participate in the elections, irrespective of these threats? A majority in the Valley will not participate on account of two other factors – bad governance and the suspicion of rigging.

     A study conducted by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies during the first and second weeks of August revealed that 84 percent of the Kashmiris will not participate in the elections due to bad governance and 74 percent due to the fear of rigging. Another survey conducted during the same period by The Week (18 August 2002) reveals that 81 percent in the Valley feel that the forthcoming elections would be rigged.

     The majority of the Kashmiris believe that the elections in Kashmir have always been rigged. The rigging of the 1987 elections, in which the Muslim United Front (MUF) was defeated, is fresh in their minds. Though the National Conference feels that not a single case of rigging has been proved, the people are not buying this argument. They believe that, since the NC is the only party in the Valley with an organizational strength reaching up to the village levels, none of the other parties or independents would be able to compete. Since the forthcoming elections are not going to be held under Governor’s rule, they fear that the NC would use the state machinery to rig elections.

     Secondly, unlike people outside the Valley, the common population does not have faith in the Election Commission of India. Even if the EC is serious, they feel it would be practically impossible to send its observers to all the remote and hilly areas in the State.

     Thirdly, people in the Valley relate their voting with bad governance. Their main disillusionment is that have they achieved nothing by voting in the previous elections. They see the NC as corrupt and inefficient and the Union government as insincere and selfish in its dealings with Kashmir.

     It is the people of Kashmir and their disappointment with the election process, which constitutes the major threat to the forthcoming elections.