Ever since the countdown for elections has begun in Jammu and Kashmir, there has been increasing focus upon the participation of All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC). The Union government wants it to participate in the elections for the following reasons.

     Firstly, the Union government believes that the Hurriyat’s participation would increase the voting percentage in the Valley. Other mainstream and separatist parties including the Congress, BJP, JKPDP etc maintain only a marginal presence here.

     Secondly, the participation of the Hurriyat is likely to increase the credibility of the elections. Ever since its formation, the Hurriyat has not participated in them. Coupled with a low turnout in the Valley, this affects the credibility of elections in Jammu and Kashmir.

     Thirdly, the Hurriyat’s participation is essential for eliciting the international audience. India, post the 1998 nuclear tests and the Kargil war, has come under severe international pressure over Kashmir. If India has to prove that the problem in Kashmir relates only to terrorism, the participation of all parties is essential. The non-participation of the Hurriyat has made India’s “terrorism only” policy questionable.

     Fourthly, the participation of Hurriyat will be instrumental in striking back at Pakistan diplomatically. It is through the Hurriyat that Pakistan has been able to justify its stand to the international community that it supports separatist leaders and not terrorists.

     This explains the frantic effort made by the Union government to persuade the Hurriyat to participate in the elections. Farooq Abdullah even offered to resign and called for imposing Governor’s rule, provided the Hurriyat agrees to participate in the forthcoming elections. Apart from India, there has been pressure on the Hurriyat from outside to participate. A delegation from the European Union met the Hurriyat leaders during the first week of August, but in vain. The main objective of the recently formed Kashmir Committee, headed by Ram Jethmalani, is to persuade the Hurriyat to participate in the forthcoming elections.

     But the Hurriyat is unlikely to do so despite pressure by India and the international community for the following reasons.

     First, the Hurriyat is aware that if it agrees to participate in the elections, without accomplishing any major achievement, it would lose popular support – whatever remains of it in the Valley. Neither the Union government nor the international community seem to be appreciating the fact that it is the popular support that the Hurriyat is more worried about.

     Most people in the Valley will not participate in the elections unless the Union government promises that it will lead to a solution of the problem. Besides, these elections need to be made credible; they have to be conducted under Governor’s rule and with the presence of international observers. Removal of security forces is also being insisted as a precondition. If the Hurriyat participates in the elections without fulfilling these expectations, popular anger will turn against the Hurriyat.

     It should be understood that people, especially in the rural areas, have made many sacrifices for the Hurriyat. Whenever it called for a hartal, they responded. According to a report, since 1989, Kashmir was closed due to these hartals altogether for a period of three and half years.

     Secondly, the Hurriyat is aware that its support base has shrunk in the past years. In the rural areas, there is equal hatred for the Hurriyat along with the National Conference and the Union government. On the contrary, many feel that in the name of Kashmiris and the Kashmir freedom struggle, the Hurriyat leaders have prospered. A section of this group criticizes that most of the Hurriyat leaders live in luxury, with their sons involved in affluent business circles overseas. The hawala scandal, in which some of its leaders are involved, has repaired the credibility of the Hurriyat.

     Thirdly, whatever support the Hurriyat has been receiving in the past from the people is not entirely on account of their belief in it. Rather, it was the anti-India and anti-NC feeling that made them support Hurriyat. The Hurriyat does not have strong organizational support at the grass-roots’ level. Parties such as the Jamaat, which are a part of the Hurriyat, have their presence but in select areas. Outside the Valley, in Jammu and Ladakh, the Hurriyat will not be able to win even a single seat. Even inside the Valley, only in urban areas, mainly Srinagar, the Hurriyat will be able to make an impact.

     Fourthly, the Hurriyat lacks charismatic leaders. In a survey conducted by The Week during the first week of August, many regard Shabir Shah (who is not a part of the Hurriyat) as a leader who would be able to solve their problems. Only 10 percent believe in Mirwaiz Farooq, 9 percent in Yaseen Malik and 7 percent in Syed Geelani. Besides, the two main crowd pullers of the Hurriyat - Syed Ali Geelani and Yaseen Malik are in jail and is doubtful whether they will be released in the near future. It is unfortunate that the most popular leader of the Hurriyat – Abdul Ghani Lone was assassinated and the present Chairman of the Hurriyat – Prof Abdul Ghani Bhat is considered more of an ideologue than a politician.

     Fifthly, the Hurriyat is an amalgam of 23 parties, with a lot of infighting. Recently, Abdul Ghani Bhat was re-elected as the Chairman of the Hurriyat without elections, simply because the Hurriyat wanted to avoid any open fight at this juncture. Though outside the Hurriyat attempts to convey a united picture, it is a divided house.

     Finally, the Hurriyat will not participate in the elections because of certain subtle threats from Pakistan and open threats from militants. The assassination of Abdul Ghani Lone was a lesson aimed at the other leaders of the Hurriyat. Without outside support – moral, monetary and political, the Hurriyat would have been dead by now.

     Expecting the Hurriyat to participate in the elections given such circumstances would be nothing but blasphemy.