The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi, conducted a study during 4-10 Aug 2002 on the forthcoming elections to the J&K Assembly in the Kashmir valley. Leaders from the mainstream and separatist groups, teachers, lawyers, journalists, tourist operators (hotel owners, house boat owners and travel agents), students, hawkers, drivers, small businessmen, tonga owners and others were met in Srinagar, Kupwara and Baramulla districts.

Findings of Survey

   137 persons were met (73 in Srinagar and 64 outside). Four main questions were the focus of the conversations with these people from various strata. The questions and the responses are as follows

1. How do you see the forthcoming elections?

2. Will you participate in the elections?

3. What are your reasons for not participating?

(Respondents provided more than one reason for not participating)

4. Will you participate if the elections are held under the Governor’s rule and with international observers?

(This question was posed to the 115 persons who answered either no or perhaps or offered no comments when asked whether they would participate in the elections)

Analysis of the Survey

• Only 13 percentage of the electorate in the Valley hopes to participate in the elections. This section mainly consists of the supporters of the National Conference.

• 87 percent of the electorate considers the Assembly elections to be a futile exercise. The reasons are mixed. Bad governance in the state, broken promises by the Union government and lack of a coherent policy towards the state, reluctance of the Union government to hold any credible dialogue with the people of Kashmir and its leaders are the main reasons for their considering this exercise futile. A section, in this group, also believes that these elections are being held for national and international audiences and not for the people of Jammu and Kashmir. 

• 16 percent would participate in the elections. Though a section in this group believe that the elections are a futile effort, they would like to exercise their right to choose their representatives and prevent the NC from coming back to power without any fight.

• 69 percent would not participate in the elections while 15 percent have not made up their minds yet. Two main reasons for not participating in the elections are bad governance by both the Union and State governments (81 percent) and the fear of rigging by the ruling National Conference (74 percent). 

• Bad governance and the fear of rigging are the main concerns of the people in the rural areas. Unlike in Srinagar, people in the rural areas seem to give less importance to the lack of a credible political process for their non-participation, though there is lot of anti-Union sentiments among them. In fact, some of them were not even aware of any dialogue between the Union government and the State led by Mr KC Pant or by Mr Jaitley.

• 23 percent would not participate in the elections as there is no political process between the Union and the people of Jammu and Kashmir to resolve the present conflict. Lack of a dialogue with the people of Kashmir and its leaders and with Pakistan are the major reasons. People in Srinagar are more upset over the lack of any credible political process between the Union and J&K than in rural areas.

• 15 percent would not participate in the elections as they are against any political process within the Indian Constitution. This section belongs mainly to Srinagar and is mostly the sympathizers or supporters of the Hurriyat.

• 43 percent of those who would not participate in the elections will do so, if the elections are conducted under Governor’s rule and the supervision of international observers. 43 percent may participate in these circumstances while 14 percent would not, even under Governor’s rule and international observation.