As Nepal heads towards elections, analysts are busy studying the alignments and realignments among political parties in Nepal. One possible development is the joining of forces by the Communist Party of Nepal-United-Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) – the underground Maoist insurgents party. The Maoists have a presence in an estimated 165 of the total 205 parliamentary constituencies. The CPN-UML had joined the coalition government in 1998. In the last parliamentary elections in May 1999 it secured 71 seats, polling 32 percent of the votes nationwide. The assessment of analysts is that, if the Maoists and the CPN-UML join hands, they would continue to be in power for ever in the light of the divisions among centrist political parties. This is a worrisome proposition.

   The Maoists in Nepal have extensive linkages with the left-wing extremists in India. Reportedly, it was after a meeting in 1995 with the People’s War Group [PWG] leadership that the Maoists decided to launch their ‘people’s war’ in Nepal on 13 February 1996. The military structure of the two outfits is similar, as is their nomenclature. Both have a Central Military Commission, Area Committees, and Section Commanders. Besides, the Maoists sent a delegate to the last PWG congress held in Buzurmad village, in the Dandakaranya forests of Madhya Pradesh, between 3 and 22 March 2001. It is not clear if the PWG extended training facilities to the Maoist insurgents, but this is quite possible. It is equally possible that the Maoists have their own instructors. Still, a Coordination Committee of Maoist Parties and Organizations in South Asia (CCOMPOSA) already exists and its formation was announced on 1 July 2001. CCOMPOSA was formed with the aim of unifying and coordinating the activities of Maoist parties and organizations in South Asia.

   The notion of an umbrella organization to link left-wing revolutionaries might seem romantic and far fetched, but this is not correct. A 19 June 2002 report indicates that the Maoist insurgents and PWG have formed the Indo-Nepal Border Regional Committee (INBRC) “to coordinate their activities” in Bihar. The Maoists also have linkages with the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) which primarily operates in Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand. The Maoists, the PWG and the MCC are all members of CCOMPOSA.

   That apart, not many know that very recently graffiti in the name of CCOMPOSA appeared on the walls in Rayakal and Mallapur mandals of Karimnagar district, Andhra Pradesh, exhorting the people to ‘participate in the international movement of communist revolutionaries’. As members of the International Communist Movement, left-wing extremist groups have established a chain of fraternal ties. For instance, the PWG resolved at its 2001 congress to jointly conduct programmes with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Communist Party of the Philippines, Communist Party of Peru and the Communist Party of Turkey-Marxist-Leninist.

   Non-fraternal ties also exist. In October 1997, ammunition seized from the Janashakthi Naxalites in Andhra Pradesh (not a member of CCOMPOSA) reportedly had Czech markings. One group could expand by inviting another into the partnership. From a PWG arms dump in Visakhapatnam district, two videocassettes of the LTTE’s training modules were recovered in December 2001. It is, perhaps, this pattern of networks that has helped Nepal’s Maoists to link-up with the LTTE. Nepal’s Ambassador in Sri Lanka was quoted, in a June 15 report, as saying that the LTTE rebels were training the Maoist insurgents.

   If the CPN-UML comes to power with the backing of the Maoists, the insurgents would wield immense clout and gain in strength. Besides, the over-seven months of clashes with the Royal Nepal Army has made them battle-hardened. They have now acquired new fighting and tactical skills. In India and Nepal, moreover, the topography of the areas in which clashes occur is similar viz. plains, forests and hill-areas. The Naxalites operate in all these areas. Given the linkages the Maoists have developed with the PWG and other left-wing extremist groups, they could share the experience thus gained with Indian groups. A situation could thus emerge where the police forces in the various States of India would be fighting a superior adversary.