The American evaluation of the Chinese military threat is an ongoing process conducted by the Pentagon. It is independent of the professions of goodwill and friendly relations between the two countries and the exchange of high level visits by leaders of both nations.

     Chinese spokesmen have in recent times been highlighting the fact that President Bush visited China twice within four months. It has also been mentioned by the Chinese that their President would be visiting United States this autumn.

     Against this backdrop it was surprising that in mid-July 2002 the US media carried reports that the Pentagon has re-valuated the Chinese military threat to the Asia Pacific region in the light of the current modernization and upgradation programmes of the Chinese armed forces. The Pentagon’s re-valuation of the Chinese military threat incorporates the following major conclusions

• The Chinese upgradation of its missile systems is both qualitative and quantitative.

• China is assessed to be on a collision course with Taiwan.

• China is in the midst of preparing credible options for the invasion of Taiwan, and could act against Taiwan.

• The Chinese missile systems, which could earlier target only the west coast cities in the US, can now reach and target American cities on the east coast.

• China poses a threat to Japan, Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan.

     It would be recalled that only a year back, just prior to the events of Sept 11, the US-China relations had reached a state of acute confrontation over the Hainan Island incident involving a US spy plane. The events of 9/11 overtook everything else with the global focus remaining on combating Islamic Jihadi terrorism, exemplified by Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaida. China supported the global counter-terrorism efforts, basically impelled by the turbulence in its western provinces caused by Islamic terrorism generated from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

     Analytically, the following questions arise in the light of the Pentagon’s revaluation of the Chinese military threat:

• The Pentagon’s timing of the release of this revaluation of the Chinese threat just before the Chinese President’s visit to United States.

• The US identification of China as a military threat to its military allies in the Pacific Rim in Asia.

• The US highlighting that China has missile capabilities now to target American cities on the east coast.

• The US highlighting that China is on a collision course with Taiwan.

     A simplistic answer could be that this revaluation and public projection of the Chinese military threat is linked to some kind of posturing on the eve of the Chinese President’s visit. But the intriguing part is that if the Pentagon’s projections were Taiwan-specific, only then could it be attributed to political posturing as a prelude to the forthcoming US-China summit in autumn.

     The Pentagon’s current revaluation of the Chinese military threat, however, is not Taiwan specific, but covers the entire gamut of Asia-Pacific security and also the Chinese missile threat to homeland USA. It therefore seems that that the US has much wider security concerns arising from its assessment of China’s upgradation of its military machine. In terms of Taiwan, the United States seems to be concerned that China could push for a military solution to merge Taiwan with China. And that, if China has not done so far, it was because of its inadequate military capabilities, which has now been improved considerably.

     In conclusion it can be said that, if China does elect to go in for a military solution of the Taiwan issue, the US would not be a passive by-stander. Nor will it allow its Asia Pacific allies like Japan, Philippines and South Korea remain passive by-standers if it confronts China militarily over Taiwan. The current Pentagon projections of the Chinese military threat could be an attempt to put China on notice publicly and also America’s allies in the Asia Pacific region.