A few months after the Kaluchak massacre the terrorists have struck yet again at Kasim Nagar, killing 33 people including women and children who were poor Hindu labourers from UP and Bihar. The purpose, as stated by the terrorists themselves, was to simply take their lives to demonstrate their ability to strike at soft targets at will and show that neither India, nor Pakistan, nor even the US could stop them. India reacted predictably, accusing Pakistan. Equally predictably, Pakistan and then the US rejected India’s contention. The Indian government vowed to take up the gauntlet itself as it had vowed many a time before. One wonders whether they are playing to the gallery or whether they have a clear game plan. Most probably the former.

     In fact some clear inferences can be drawn from the Kasim Nagar massacre and remedial action taken. One, a small group of three or four persons can always kill unarmed and defenseless people by shooting them or exploding an IED. Two, thereafter it is easy for them to melt in the populace or vanish in the jungles. Three, the Pakistan government cannot control them for they need little from them. The bombing of the French and the American personnel in Karachi, murder of Daniel Pearl and many anti-Musharraf demonstrations in Pakistan by the fundamentalists bear testimony to this fact. Four, massive deployment on the borders can hardly deter them as they are in no hurry to exfiltrate to Pakistan. Five, the US or the West can be of no practical help. So, what should we do? Could we follow Israel’s example?

Israel’s Example

     Israel has decided to choose the option of invading the Palestinian towns and besieging the HQ of Yasser Arafat. Yet, attacks on civilians by human bombs (fidayeens) continue unabated taking a horrific toll. So, the effective answer does not seem to lie in attacking the elusive terrorist camps which may serve only to strengthen the resolve of the fanatics, weaken the few moderate elements in Pakistan, and antagonize the international community which will begin to equate us with Israel.

What should India do

     We should do nothing massive, spectacular or conventional. India’s option would appear to lie in defensive, innovative and imaginative surgical operations. Following measures are suggested:

• Police and civil administration should work in a closely integrated manner; the local police are intimately aware of the local populace.

• We should identify the vulnerable segments of the population, mainly Hindus, with their locations and, as far as possible, they should be relocated together near the Army’s defended localities. In areas like Doda, Kishtwar and Chamba, the villages should be relocated and provided with protective patrols.

• The buses and other public means of transport should be provided with ‘marshals’ armed with weapons like Kalashnikovs or sten guns. They should operate in pairs and in appropriate local dress.

• Ambushes should be laid in thickly populated areas like Srinagar, Sopore, Baramula, Bandipora and others with not more than two or three persons, one of them armed with the sniper rifle. The British Army operating in Northern Ireland has a plethora of experience in such operations. We could profitably attach our personnel to learn from them.

• Surveillance of the roads and the likely terrain should be done by microlite aircraft which are practically silent and least visible.

• Politically, we should not make too much noise. Let actions speak for themselves.

Intelligence

     The key to effective action is actionable intelligence on the tactical objectives of the Jehadis and their locations at various points in time. Tactical objectives can only be guessed. In choosing them the terrorists will firstly look for good media coverage and second, they would target the Hindus. Thus they could choose Godhara in Gujrat or Kaluchak or Raghunath Mandir in Jammu, or uptown Bombay for serial explosions as they did in 1993 or the J&K Assembly in Srinagar or the Indian Parliament in Delhi. Therefore, our intelligence has to be imaginative. In such a scenario, electronic intelligence is of great value if intelligently located and if the information is expeditiously communicated.

     HUMINT is invaluable if we could look to the right sources. It is usually bought by money or sex. Tehmina Durrani mentions in her book My Feudal Lord how her ex-husband Ghulam Mustafa Khar, a former governor and Chief Minister of Punjab, was bought over by RAW in London and brought to India to meet both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. Mossad obtained blue prints of Mirage 2000 from France and Sweden by deft use of money and women. It is an old game. Only the players and the tactics change. We must deploy our best brains to think of ways and means.