Reconciliation of the political parties to the fact that the constitution is going to be amended and elections would be held in October 2002 has been the major event last week (22-28 July 2002). The parties’ decision to contest in the elections, despite rejecting the proposals, should be welcomed.

     The parties are aware that boycotting the elections would only allow the less popular pro-military groups to win the elections and form the government. It is essential to keep these opportunist parties away from the Parliament as they have a key role to play in the military regime’s agenda. First, a government with only pro-regime parties contesting and winning would create a myth among the international community (read the US) that the democratic process has been restored. An elected Parliament, however sham it may be, is a face-saver for the US to continue its support to General Musharraf without any self-proclaimed and selective moral dilemma. Second, a government run by pro-regime parties would continue to serve the regime’s interest inside the Parliament and ensure all the regime’s actions are democratically sanctioned. Given these factors, it is essential that the main political parties do not boycott the forthcoming elections. The amendments to the Constitution and the military can be better fought being part of the government rather than outside it. Precisely for these reasons, the political parties have decided to go along with the proposals for changes.

     One of the key changes is making intra-party elections mandatory. The PPP has already announced that intra-party elections would be held at- all levels before August 5. The party is also planning to conduct an election for the post of its Chairperson for the first time ever since it’s formation in 1967; it is sure to elect Benazir Bhutto as its Chairperson. Besides, efforts are on to unite all factions of PPP including PPP (SB) led by its chairperson Ghinwa Bhutto.

     The PML (N) is also preparing for elections, but unlike the PPP, there is no serious move to unite all the factions. The PML (QA), led by Mian Azhar, is likely to be the most favored party of the military regime and the other factions are composed mainly of a few leaders without any followers. The PML (N) may replace Nawaz Sharif with Shabaz Sharif as its leader with some understanding worked out between the party and the military.

     The MQM would be conducting intra-party elections by the end of this month and be contesting the elections. No doubt, the party would be able to win its traditional seats in Sindh without any hurdle.

     The religious parties, under the banner of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), have already announced that they would take part in the elections. In the absence of PPP and PML (N) leaders, these parties are optimistic. They are aiming to procure more than five percent of the votes - a minimum eligibility requirement for contesting for Senate elections. These parties have already announced their understanding with all major political parties (except MQM) for contesting at local level (and not at Provincial or national level).

     It appears that all the mainstream parties including the PPP, PML (N) and MQM that are a part of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) would not be contesting under a single banner, but rather independently with an informal and unofficial understanding on seat sharing. It is essential under the Political Parties Order 2002 that even an alliance holds internal elections like that of a party. Besides, given the differences among the various leaders and among the followers at the grassroots level, it is better for the parties to contest with an informal understanding rather than a formal alliance.

     Another decision made by the parties is not to challenge the packages in court as they have realized that approaching the judiciary is pointless given recent judgments in favor of the military regime; thus far, the judiciary has not given a single verdict against the military regime in any case of significance. The parties feel it is better to appeal in the “peoples’ court.”

     On the positive side, towards conducting free and fair elections, Justice (retd) Irshad Hasan Khan, Chief Election Commissioner of Pakistan, has made two significant announcements. First, the ban on transfer of the civil servants till the end of elections and the second, an invitation to a Commonwealth delegation to observe the election process. He has also asked the regime to lift the ban on political activities. These steps, no doubt, would increase the credibility of the election process and the Election Commission itself.

     All major political parties are set to contest in the forthcoming elections, much against the wishes of the military regime; any understanding – formal or informal – among these parties would certainly affect the prospects of the pro-regime parties. That why the military regime, well aware of this predicament, has strengthened its position vis-à-vis the Parliament by arming the President with more powers and introducing a National Security Council.