How do you perceive the forthcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir?

Elections represent a huge opportunity for the Government of India to demonstrate to the Kashmiri people its commitment to democracy, justice and fair-play and to revive the confidence of the Kashmiri people in democratic institutions. There is a mood in the Kashmir valley, which is in favour of the democratic process and will be willing, subject to certain assurances being given. The question is what kind of measures are needed to give the confidence to the Kashmiri people so that they can participate in the elections. The challenge really is how to make the elections both credible and inclusive – credibility in terms of independent free elections, and inclusiveness in terms of ensuring widest possible popular participation in the elections.

How much participation do you expect from the people and from various political parties and organizations, given the fact there is no political package from the Union government till today?

In Jammu and Ladakh, we know that there will be participation, though there is a degree of alienation in both the regions. But the degree of alienation in Jammu and Ladakh has not come up to the level of alienation in Kashmir. And in Kashmir, quite clearly, there is a public sentiment against violence in favour of the democratic process. How do you channelise it in order to ensure that there is fullest participation in the elections? Two ways seem clear. First of all, the people have to be given the confidence that their votes – every single vote – would matter. In other words, it is going to be completely fair. The Election Commission of India has gained credibility over the years; but in Kashmir, you need reassurance. Mr Lyngdoh, when he visited Kashmir said the Election Commission would appoint their own official observers but others would be free to monitor and observe the elections even though it is not mandatory on the part of the Elections Commission. I think the government needs to give assurance to independent observers who might want to monitor elections that security will be provided for them and they would be given access.

The second point is how does one assure the Kashmiri people that this election is different and would make a difference to their lives. There is a need to reach out to the Kashmir people through a series of confidence building measures before the elections. Some of these confidence building measures could be the release of the militants and people who are in jail for the last ten years or more without even being tried. Simultaneously, when the Prime Minister visits Kashmir, he has to begin a process of dialogue with the separatist groups.

Finally, and most importantly, whatever Mr Jaitley, who has been appointed as the interlocutor to discuss issues related to autonomy, may or may not say, what is vital for the Government of India is to announce that they will negotiate the quantum of autonomy necessary to fulfill the aspirations of the Kashmiri people and to fulfill their longing for self governance with the elected representatives of the Kashmiris within three months after the new Assembly is elected.

Most groups feel that there will not be a level playing field in the elections with the incumbent administration. Given the resources of the National Conference government, given the fact that they have key people in various slots in the administration, these groups feel they will not have a chance of winning the elections. Ultimately no political group – separatist or otherwise – is going to contest the elections with the feeling that they are going to lose the elections. So you may have to have a period of Governor’s rule before the elections. I think it is an important signal. The National Conference may feel hurt or little unhappy, but that is a small cost to pay for making the elections inclusive.

To what extent would the elections be really free and fair, given the fact the electoral rolls have not been revised for the last twenty years.

There are two issues which must determine whether the elections need to be postponed. If the level of violence goes up – it is clear that Pakistan or elements in Pakistan see the biggest threat to their Kashmir policy come from independent inclusive credible elections in Kashmir. So there would be elements within Pakistan to sabotage the elections. If the violence goes up it would be extremely difficult for the people to come out and vote or even for the people to contest in the elections. The killing of the moderate separatist leader Abdul Ghani Lone has already had an effect on other moderates. If the Election Commission is not sure that the electoral rolls represent the whole adult population of Jammu and Kashmir, they must postpone the elections. It is vital that these elections are not just free and fair but are also seen to be free and fair, not by just Kashmiris but by all Indians and the international community. Let us not make an artificial deadline. Even after the end of the tenure of this Legislative Assembly, the elections can be held within six months. For climatic and other reasons you cannot hold them between December and February. But if the Election Commission is confident that you can revise the rolls and hold it by November end, then so be it. But if the elections are to be postponed till March to facilitate a fair transparent process of getting everyone registered, I think it is worth it.

After the assassination of Abdul Ghani Lone, how much participation can be expected from the Hurriyat for the forthcoming elections?

It will depend on three factors. One, the kind of the confidence building measures and the reaching out of Government of India. Secondly, the assurances about a level playing field in terms of the elections and their fairness. Thirdly the role played by Pakistan. If the Hurriyat feels confident enough about the Government of India that they can participate in the elections and have a genuine chance of winning and not lose their credibility they may do so. On the other hand, if there is a chance that they would lose their credibility, they may not win the elections and Pakistan will discourage them strongly, then they will not. But what is clear is that there is a public sentiment that is forcing the Hurriyat to engage in the electoral process. The seven main executive members of the Hurriyat may not contest. But even as we speak, there is a second rung of leadership that is contemplating being a part of what is now being termed as the third front – a coalition of parties which neither belong to the Hurriyat nor to the National Conference. There are second rung leaders in the Hurriyat who are now speaking up, who are expressing the sentiments of the Kashmiri people.

On the issue of international observation, why not officially invite the observers to monitor the elections. By letting them observe not only the polls, but the entire election process, the international community will come to understand, who is for and against democracy in the valley. India has more to gain by having international observers.

Given India’s history, experience, its touchiness about sovereignty, its touchiness about internationalizing the Kashmir issue – I think we need to talk about what is within the realm of possibility. I don’t think the Government of India is prepared to allow international observers to observe elections particularly in Kashmir. But it’s a big leap when the Chief Election Commissioner says that any one can come and observe the elections and that they will be given access. It can’t be mandatory, because the rules governing the Election Commission of India do not allow for foreign observers to be invited.

Given this background, letting people come and observe the elections is in itself is a giant leap; but, to accept the representatives as official nominees of the Election Commission – I think India has to get a great deal of confidence in the working of the international system.

I think it is a big step announcing that anybody is welcome to observe the elections and that the Election Commission would facilitate them; we should support that rather than demand what may not be possible.

There seems to be an attempt to communally mobilize the people before the elections. Following the RSS plan to trifurcate Jammu and Kashmir, a forum has been formed in the Jammu region led by the RSS. What would be the impact of this effort?

In Jammu and Kashmir, for more than a decade, there has been a degree of polarization. Hindus in Jammu and Buddhists in Ladakh are completely anti-Kashmir and there are significant groups demanding detachment from the Kashmir valley. But, over the last four or five years, there has been a degree of disillusionment with communal politics. Inside Jammu, the BJP has lost its clout considerably. I feel this attempt by the RSS to radicalize the issue will not be a success. It can still create or intensify communal cleavage, but most of the ordinary people in Jammu are disillusioned with Hindu right wing politics. Unless there is State patronage, I don’t think this will be a force to reckon with.

Will the change of leadership in the National Conference have any impact?

If the elections are like the 1996 elections in terms of non-participation by the separatist groups, whether it is Farooq Abdullah or Omar Abdullah, they will win. If there is greater participation, then I think the change in leadership with Omar Abdullah, being younger, fresher, and a less tainted figure, will make a difference. But it is not going to be easy for the National Conference to win this election. Certainly the NC has a network on the ground. It has the advantage of being the incumbent. It has been able to provide patronage to a large number of people. But the degree of resentment and the degree of anti-establishment feeling in Kashmir will translate into opposition to the NC.

NC is the only party that has representation from all the three regions. If the NC does not perform the way it did in the 1996 elections, how would the future of J&K Assembly be?

The future could be a coalition of those who are not part of the NC and not part of the Hurriyat. The Congress, Mufti Syed’s Peoples Democratic Party, Shabir Shah’s group and other groups that are coming out of the Hurriyat – it could be a coalition, even a messy one. Even the National Democratic Alliance at the Centre is a messy coalition and yet they are stuck together. The third front is essentially going to be a forum of everyone who does not belong either to the National Conference or the Hurriyat.

Don’t you think, since NC is the party with representation from all the three provinces, the Union government needs to give some leverages on the issue of autonomy – the main NC agenda?

Frankly, what the Union government should do is to reach out to the Kashmiri people. I don’t think it should play short-term politics in these elections either by rigging it or providing certain incentives. I think what needs to be ensured is people’s participation. There should be sufficient participation and sufficient voting. I believe the NC has lost credibility – it is my personal belief. And it would be good for democracy in Kashmir if there is a change. Sooner or later the representatives of these groups (the third front) would have representation in Jammu and Ladakh. NC’s stronghold in Jammu and Ladakh is essentially in Muslim dominated areas – in Doda, Rajouri Poonch and in Kargil; it is not that the NC is a party of every one in Jammu and Kashmir.

How would Pakistan and the militant groups react to the elections?

This would be the biggest challenge. I’m sure that Pakistan is going to subvert inclusive elections in Kashmir. But only two things could pressure Pakistan from not doing so – international pressure, in other words US pressure, and the ability of India to give confidence to the Kashmiri people. The rump elements within the militants not under the control of Pakistan will not be able to destroy the elections.