With elections to be held for the State Legislative Assembly in the near future, it is essential to analyse what would be the strategy of the various militant organisations towards it. With no positive contribution expected from them and given their past history, it is sure that the militants would take every effort to scuttle the election process.

Forecasting the militants’ strategy

   First would be, to scare the people from voting. Besides general apathy towards the election process, warnings from various militant groups did factor in a section of the Kashmiris not voting in previous elections. In the forthcoming elections also one can expect the same strategy from the militants.

   Second would be, to scare likely candidates from contesting. There were numerous incidents of candidates being physically abused, both before and after the elections. Even in the last panchayat elections in January 2001, candidates were fatally attacked, and ears and noses severed.

   Third would be, to increase communal polarization of the Kashmiri society. There would be increased attacks on the minority communities, especially the Sikhs and the Pandits in the valley. Such attacks, besides polarizing the people, would lead to desperation among the minority communities. This further leads them to boycott the polls as a sign of protest against the government’s failure to provide adequate protection. For instance, the massacre of Pandits at Wandhama in 1998 was a deliberate attempt to scuttle the Parliamentary elections. Immediately after the massacre the Pandits gave a call boycotting the elections.

   Fourth would be, to carryout the so-called fidayeen attacks on two major targets of vital importance – political and military. The political targets would be those institutions representing democracy including the legislative assembly of the state and party offices especially that of the National Conference and other parties that would be participating in the elections. The military targets, obviously, would be the installations belonging to the security forces, especially the Indian Army and the Border Security Force (BSF). These attacks serve two purposes. First, it would demoralize the security forces and create fear among those parties that are preparing for the elections. Second, these attacks would provoke the security forces to carryout raids and increase combing operations resulting in increasing the irritation among the local populace.

Combating the militants’ strategy

   The first step obviously should be to maintain vigil across the border and increase it further. However, despite the increase, the militants are bound to sneak inside and create havoc. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen security in select areas where the minority community resides. An alternative and allied approach could be to strengthen the Village Defence Committees, especially in the minority areas. These villages, in addition to the normal weapons that they are supplied with, could be given sophisticated weapons as a temporary measure till the elections are over.

   Second is, to increase diplomatic pressure at the international level towards the successful conduct of elections. This is why the presence of an international observers group to monitor not only the polling, but the entire election process becomes essential. The presence of this group would result in increasing publicity to terrorist atrocities against elections, which, in turn, would have a negative impact on the terrorists and their patron, Pakistan. External pressure is bound to have an impact, as one can expect many statements at the international level against terrorist efforts to scuttle the election process.

   Third is, to increase the security of those who are contesting in elections. It is vital to reassure the candidates that there would be no threat to their life. Critics may argue that given the limited resources of the government it would be impossible to provide security to everyone. However, ground situation being abnormal warrants extra steps to ensure free and fair elections.