Population and Environmental Security
09 May, 2002 · 746
Col Gautam highlights the delicate linkages between problems of population growth, employment, purchasing power, poverty and environment
One common factor in any dialogue on environmental stress is the question of growing population. Census data for 2000-01 shows that, of the top eight most populous countries in the world, three are from
South Asia
.
India
with a population of 102.7 crores (nearly a billion) is at number two, trailing
China
which has a population of 127.7 crores (1.27 billion). The population of the state of Uttar Pradesh (in
India
) is more than that of
Pakistan
.
India
’s population is more than the continent of
Africa
. Forecasters have predicted that
India
may overtake the population of
China
by 2035. Presently,
Pakistan
is at sixth position in the world and
Bangladesh
is at the eight position with populations of 15.6 and 12.9 crores (156 and 129 million) respectively. Both countries are likely to improve their ranking by mid 21st Century.
China
and South Asian countries are more than 45 percent of humanity. It is obvious that population would lead to greater demands for resources and jobs. These being limited would lead to environmental degradation, resource scarcities and social tensions within and across borders.
India
, according to the provisional figures of the 2001 census, is down to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent recorded in the 1991 census. It is hoped that the objective of bringing down the Total Fertility Rate (TRF) to a replacement level of 2.1 would be achieved by 2010. The National Population Policy (NPP) adopted in 2000 aims to achieve stable population growth by 2045. Projections for increasing irrigation potential for matching increase in food security have been based on the calculation that India’s population will be 123 crores (1.23 billion) by 2015 and between 135-158 crores (1.35-1.58 billion) by 2050. One calculation predicts
India
’s population may stabilize at 180 crores (1.8 billion) by 2100. World population, similarly, is expected to stabilize at 10 billion by end of 21st century.
In water demand and supply projections, the requirement of water also increases and by 2050, it is projected that the demand of water would catch up with the finite supply or utilizable figures of 1086 billion cubic meters per annum. This projection is also a direct function of the population projections.
India
can support? Or, what is the carrying capacity of our country to support a population of ‘X’ number of people? No ready answers are available. If we can look after our population well without any poverty, then we would be a superpower by the strength of population alone. Indians are known to be content with simple things in life. Population can be turned into an asset, provided it does not retard sustainable development. The first step is to contain growth of population. This is a challenge to the major South Asian countries. The second challenge is to provide employment to the people. Due to agrarian nature of our economy, bulk of jobs can be provided in the farm sector in post harvest and other activities.
The growth rate of the population in
Official figures indicate that from the approximate 200 million tons of food grain and feed demand at present, the demand for food grains and feed in future may be as under:-
Projected food grain and feed demand (in million tons)
| Year
|
2010
|
2025
|
2050
|
| High Demand
|
247
|
320
|
494
|
| Low Demand
|
245
|
308
|
420
|
It is thus seen that population directly places demands on the ecological resources. Yet, as explained so simply by Amartya Sen, food stocks are not the problem but lack of purchasing power with the poor. The major test is to provide and generate employment to the population, bulk of which is in the youth bulge in rural areas. Poor people are forced to migrate from rural to urban areas in search of livelihood. The urban areas then also come under strain as they are not designed or geared up to receive migrants. This leads to proliferation of slums in cities with concomitant social stresses. To beat poverty, the approach paper to the 10th Plan has planned to have a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 8 per cent in order to double per capita income in a time frame of 10 years.
All these figures and targets are very delicately balanced. Even the finest of “good governance” would come to naught if we do not control our population.
The best strategy to control population is through education and attitudes. What is the ideal population which
Some optimists have total faith in technology coming to the rescue. They cite how Malthus went wrong in his doomsday scenario by not factoring the wonder of science and technology in increasing food output. That could be true for the developed countries, but ground reality is still grim in
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