Barring some, most political and religious parties in Pakistan have rejected the referendum.  However, they face a number of problems in mobilizing public opinion against Musharraf. Their impact, therefore, would be limited and ineffective for the following reasons.

Lack of Unity

Political parties in Pakistan are deeply divided on political, ideological and religious terms. There are four broad political divides – the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD), PML (N), PPP, and the religious parties forming the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA),.

The MMA includes the Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan led by Shah Ahmed Noorani; Jamaat-i-Islami led by Qazi Hussain Ahmed; Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman; JUI (S) led by Maulana Samiul Haq; Jamiat Ahle Hadith led by Allama Sajid and Millat-i-Jafria Pakistan led by Allama Sajid Naqvi. The PPP and PML (N) have already refused to enter any alliance with these religious parties.

The main political parties – PML (N) and PPP – have their traditional differences and there seems to be no consensus reached between them on the referendum issue. The ARD, led by veteran Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, includes a number of minor parties, but they are only paper tigers. Though the PPP and PML (N) also form a part of the ARD, their contribution is negligible.

Besides these religious and political parties, there are a number of minor parties who are supporting the referendum initiative. They include the Millat Party, led by Farooq Ahmed Leghari, the QA faction of the PML, led by Shujaat Hussain, Syed Iftikhar Gilani and Gohar Ayub Khan, and the PML (Q), led by Qasim Syed Kabir Ali Wasti. 

A general lack of unity among all these parties is making their efforts ineffective.

Lack of Popular Support

Misgovernance, corruption and narrow political objectives have discredited the political parties. Elections conducted since 1989 have witnessed a steady decline in the percentage of votes polled. In the last elections conducted in 1997, some 35 percent of the electorate voted. 

Only a section of the party cadres is involved today in the political process, but the majority of the population is apathetic to the opposition of the political parties towards the referendum. Even if the elections take place this year in October and political parties are allowed to contest freely, the percentage of the population voting would be less than in the previous elections.

Given these present circumstances and the past record of the political parties, there is no clientele available to listen to them.

Ban on Political Activities

The military regime has banned political activities in Pakistan and political leaders have been refused permission to organize rallies and meetings. Attempts made by these leaders have been thwarted by the military regime using force. Besides the ban, an informal threat to disqualify parties if they get involved in activities against the military regime has proved effective.

Lack of Leadership

The most important factor that has hobbled the efforts of the political parties to garner opposition against the military regime is the decision of the military regime not to allow Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan. Both the PPP and PML (N) depend on the charisma of these two leaders to a great extent; without them, these parties would find it difficult to reach crucial decisions and gather popular support.

Lack of Issues

The political parties also lack substantive issues that could be placed before the people. The military regime has certainly performed better than the previous governments in crucial economic and social areas. The fiscal deficit has been brought down from 7 percent to 5.2 percent; Foreign exchange reserves have increased from US$ 500 million to US$ 5.3 billion. The jihadi groups have been banned and some of their leaders jailed; and attempts have been made to regulate madrassa education.

Secondly, the publicizing of issues like democracy and human rights by Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif and Qazi Hussain are not taken seriously, as they had destroyed these values systematically after the restoration of democracy in 1989. The latest crisis in Afghanistan, which the political parties believed would turn the tide in their favour, did not work, as the majority of Pakistanis seemed to have endorsed Musharraf’s policies including his support to the US. These political parties had played a significant role in the Afghan civil war, which had resulted in bringing the jihadi culture inside the Pakistani society. The Pakistan-Afghanistan Defence Council, forerunner of the MMA, failed to get popular support against the military regime, as the people have approved the efforts taken by the Musharraf regime to cleanse Pakistan of sectarian and fundamentalist organizations.

What can these anti-referendum parties do, apart from organizing rallies and strikes? Even these attempts would be ineffective, as the military regime can scuttle them by making mass arrests, preventive detentions and so on. Due to the lack of leadership, issues, and unity, these parties would only have some nuisance value for the regime, but will not constitute any major threat to it conducting the referendum.