India-Russia Relations: Time to Look Out

23 Feb, 2002    ·   707

Azhagarasu argues that “recent efforts to revitalize the relations between India and Russia may only arrest further decline, but may not result in any spectacular improvement”
Azhagarasu
Relations between India and Russia have deteriorated rapidly in the last decade due to two factors – disintegration of the former Soviet Union and end of the Cold War.

 

 

The main reason for the decline in India-Russia relations is that, despite the hype, they were mainly focussed on defence, and there was hardly any significant economic and trade linkages. Further, this was governed by the rupee-ruble agreement. Bilateral trade which was around $ 5 billion towards the end of the 1980s, fell to a mere $1.2 billion towards the end of the 1990s.

 

 

The defence relations between the two countries too came under question, as there are many in India who felt that the quality of Russian defence products was declining due to Russia ’s internal reasons.  They argue that it is time India started looking towards the West to procure new defence related products.

 

 

Russia is more keen to improve the bilateral relations than India , since Russia realizes that it is getting increasingly isolated at the international level. With Putin becoming the Premier and the country slowly overcoming its economic and political problems, Russia has started looking for strategic partnerships at the regional level to increase its influence. Putin’s visit to India in 2000 and the idea of a “strategic triangle” involving Russia , India and China are the outcome of this new approach. Recently, Russia ’s Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, and Deputy Prime Minister, Ilya Klebanov, visited India and signed a number of agreements in the defence, science, technology and trade fields. These include agreements on the acquisition of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, Tu-22 long range maritime reconnaissance aircraft, speeding up the delivery of T-90 tanks etc. On the economic front, Russia has agreed to import computers and pharmaceuticals from India . It has also agreed that both countries would trade in hard currencies from 2005, once the rupee-rouble account comes to an end.

 

 

How far can India-Russia relations improve in the present scenario? What can India gain from Russia in the coming years, given its security requirements? This needs to be analyzed pragmatically, ignoring the rhetoric of “special relationship.”

 

 

India’s strategic requirement include a strong economy, development in the nuclear field, especially in building and improving its nuclear arsenal, alongwith developing its missile programme, and finally combating terrorism.  

 

 

How far could Russia assist India ’s nuclear and missile programmes, apart from assisting India ’s civilian nuclear programme? Will Russia assist India , if the latter decides to go ahead with its nuclear submarine project? The pressure from the US and the US led NSG and MTCR cartels would prevent Russia from assisting these programme. Besides, Russia is heavily dependent on the West, especially the United States , for its economic recovery.

 

 

On the economic front, Russia is facing serious economic problems internally and  would not be able to assist India in terms of any major investment. Trade, in items like tea, diamonds and computers, will not significantly benefit the two countries.

 

 

Finally, with all the agreements and dialogue, whether “strategic” or otherwise, India and Russia would not be able to achieve much on jointly combating terrorism. The terrorist organizations that are operating in Dagestan and Chechenya are not the same as those fighting in Kashmir , in terms of ideology, objectives, human elements or sponsors funding them. 

 

 

Given these inhibiting factors, recent efforts to revitalize the relations between India and Russia may only arrest further decline, but may not result in any spectacular improvement. Depending on Russia would be futile for India , in the light of the transformed economic and strategic equations at the global level.

 

 

 

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