| Panelists:
|
Sangeetha Thapliyal
Maj Gen Ashok
Krishna
Ambassador Rajan
|
Sangeetha Thapliyal initiated the discussions by providing an account of the Maoist movement in
Nepal
. The Maoist movement grew in the 1990s mainly due to political instability and socio-economic under development. Besides, the intra-party feuds, especially those within the Nepali Congress also contributed to the growth of the movement.
The Maoists initially were a part of the Communist movement in
Nepal
and the political process that began in 1990. The Communist Party split in 1995, which resulted in the Maoists forming a separate group. The Maoists follow the lead of the ‘Shining Path of Peru’ and have submitted a forty-point charter of demands to the government of
Nepal
. When the government rejected the Maoist demands, they resorted to an armed conflict against the government forces. However, they did not attack the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) till November 2001.
Their ethnic base has increased ever since they resorted to an armed conflict against the government. One of the reasons for their growth, besides the increase in popular support, has been the ineffective use of
Nepal
’s police force; the government did not want to use the RNA against the Maoists for various reasons.
Three rounds of talks were held between the government and the Maoists in 2001, which failed to reach any agreement. With the Maoists re-starting their armed conflict against the government, the insurgency movement will not subside unless the socio-economic condition of the common population improves.
Major General Ashok Krishna, focused on the military aspects of the Maoist movement. The insurrection is mainly concentrated in five districts in the far west, though it is believed that 40 districts in
Nepal
are under the control of the Maoists. The role of
China
is significant in the Maoist movement in
Nepal
; they have been active since 1962 in trying to win over the Nepalese.
The RNA, which is loyal to the King, has a strength of 40,000. Of the 12 brigades of the RNA, there are five special brigades, which are deployed in
Kathmandu
. The former King Birendra was considered to be soft man who did not want to involve the RNA against the Maoists.
There has been a lot of criticism regarding the ability of the RNA to deal with the insurgents, which is not accurate. The RNA is a well-organized force; it was involved in various UN Peace Keeping operations and is capable of dealing with the Maoists.
The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of
Pakistan
has been aiding the Maoists. The Muslim organizations of
Nepal
have links with
Pakistan
. There is a China-Pakistan nexus with the Maoists in
Nepal
, which wants to spread the movement into
Sikkim
. The 1962 prisoners of war have been brain washed by
China
and are leading the Maoist movement at present.
Ambassador Rajan began his presentation by saying that the Maoist movement started with a bunch of Kukri-wielding youths, but has now grown into a large movement. The failure of multi-party democracy is the main reason for the growth of the Maoist movement in
Nepal
. The Maoists extort money from businessmen, and have adequate resources to face the RNA or even the Indian Army.
The Nepali Congress, which got a majority in the 1999 elections, failed to tackle the Maoists due to intra-party rivalry. The right-wing elements and the RNA have a common interest in making the multi party democracy a failure.
The only silver lining in the present imbroglio is the willingness of the government now to tackle the Maoist movement. The present King is serious and more assertive that his predecessor.
Questions, Comments and Responses
· The ISI activities in
Nepal
seem to be exaggerated. The open border between
India
and
Nepal
has its implications for
India
’s security that should not be under estimated.
· Terrorism has become an industry under successive governments in
India
,
Nepal
and
Bangladesh
. The terrorist groups in
Bangladesh
and
Nepal
find the Indian side safer for their survival and operations
· Unless the ISI activities in
Nepal
are curbed, not much can be done to mitigate the anti-Indian feelings inside
Nepal
.
· The main problem in Indo-Nepal relations is the obtaining power disparity.
India
has this problem with all its neighbors, who look upon
New Delhi
with suspicion.
India
should take into account all the domestic political players among its neighbours and assure all these centers of power. It should also maintain consistency in its bilateral and regional policies, irrespective of the party in power in its neighbours.
· Any insurgency movement requires contiguous territory for sanctuary, and a reliable supply of arms and resources. It is for these reasons that Maoist insurgency is flourishing in
Western Nepal
, taking advantage of the relative backwardness of the area. A proper and comprehensive understanding of the nature of Communist insurgencies would help in defeating them.
·
Nepal
does not figure on the radar screens of the
US
. Even after September 11,
Washington
expects
India
to take the lead in launching anti-terrorist operations in the sub-continent and is hesitant to involve itself directly.
China
has its own interests in
Nepal
, but not to the detriment of
India
. There is evidence that
China
is aiding the Maoists, and the latter are openly proclaiming their leaning towards
Beijing
.
China
is not out to disrupt Indo-Nepal relations. On its part
India
should be cautious and ensure that
China
is not alienated in
Nepal
.
