Sino –Indian Relations

07 Feb, 2002    ·   692

Report of the IPCS Seminar held on 30 January 2002
Speakers:

 

WPS Sidhu

 

 

Associate, International Peace Academy, New York

 

 

Jing Dong Yuan

 

 

Senior Research Associate, Centre for Non Proliferation Studies, Monterey

 

Chair:

 

PR Chari

 

 

Director, IPCS

 

 According to Dr Yuan, Sino-Indian relations will be very important in the coming decade. India and China together comprise one third of the world’s population and the nature of Sino-Indian relations will impact upon world peace. Sino-Indian ties are also important in the context of global arms race and disarmament.  China ’s activities in South Asia , India ’s activities in East Asia and their respective bilateral relationships with Pakistan are important aspects of Sino-Indian relations.

 

 

Dr Yuan referred to the Chinese Scholar Ma Jia Li’s categorization of the six T’s that are important in Sino-Indian relations. These are 

 

 

o                    Territorial issues – The boundary question is a very important dispute between the two countries and impacts upon the totality of the bilateral relationship.

 

                 

 

o                    Triangular relations, i.e., the China-India-US triangle and the China-India-Pakistan triangle.

 

                

 

o                    Tibet .

 

                

 

o                    Threat perceptions – military, nuclear and economic.

 

               

 

o                    Trade.

 

                

 

o                    NPT and CTBT

 

              

 

WPS Sidhu added the two aspects of domestic politics and the trajectory of the foreign policies of the two countries to this list. He provided an historical analysis of Sino-Indian relations. There was very little evidence of political engagement between India and China before the colonial period. The Opium War is the first instance of an engagement between the two countries; it was the result of Britain ’s desperate attempts to balance its trade deficit with China by pushing Indian opium into the Chinese market. In the colonial era, India and China cooperated against the Japanese during the Second World War. However, the post-independence hopes of building a close relationship between the two countries were belied; instead, 1962 saw a military confrontation between the two sides. 

 

 

Though 1962 was a limited military conflict, it had extra-regional repercussions. It was set in the context of the Cold War, which was at its height with the Cuban missile crisis. Any future military confrontation between India and China would have global implications. It must be noted that the 1962 Sino-Indian war did not result in a resolution of the boundary dispute. Post 1962, bilateral relations went through a “cold war” that paralleled the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union . It was during this time that China began to construct a special relationship with Pakistan . The 1979-98 period heralded the Sino-Indian détente. This period was marked by high-level exchanges, agreements, border negotiations and trade between them. The Indian nuclear tests in 1998, however, marked a serious downturn in their bilateral relations.

 

 

According to Dr Yuan, two international variables are very important in Sino-Indian ties. The first is the role of the US and how India and China view each other’s bilateral relationship with the US and, secondly, global arms control.  Since 1989, Sino-US bilateral relations have been unstable with issues of human rights, US support to Taiwan , the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and the Hainan spy-plane incident being significant low points. India ’s relationship with the US , on the other hand, has seen a steady improvement over the last decade. Except for the US sanctions against India , necessitated by domestic US laws in the wake of the Indian nuclear tests, the general trend has been towards strengthening their bilateral ties. China views this growing closeness in realpolitik terms. US arms sales to Taiwan and its special relationship with South Korea and Japan , a closer relationship with India and the current US presence in Central Asia are perceived as encircling China . Though India and the US have not formed a strategic alliance, this misperception is growing in China .

 

 

With regard to global arms control, while China and India hold similar views on disarmament, India considers the present nuclear weapons regimes to be discriminatory. China , of course, is a stake holder in the existing nuclear weapons regimes. Recognising India ’s need for a minimum credible nuclear deterrent, the US has moved away from UN resolution 1172, though China sticks by it, at least publicly.

 

 

The US decision to build its National Missile Defence (NMD) structure also impacts upon Sino-Indian relations. Deployment of the NMD will prompt the Chinese to increase the number of their ICBMs which, in turn, will trigger an arms race between India and China and, consequently, between India and Pakistan . If the US is not perceived as being serious about global arms control then China , too, would not be interested in upholding or maintaining its commitment to arms control. If China continues to supply nuclear and missile technology to Pakistan , this will have grave implications for Indian security.

 

 

According to Sidhu, India ’s geo-strategic space has been clearly defined by the government in repeated military and defence documents. China ’s geo-strategic space, however, has never been spelt out by its government. China has mentioned ASEAN, North East Asia, Japan and Taiwan in its Defence White Paper. South Asia is not mentioned. The White Paper does mention the Indian nuclear tests as a threat to global arms control. Within its ‘Look West’ policy, China is strengthening its ties with Saudi Arabia , Myanmar and Pakistan . Within its ‘Look East’ policy, India seeks to establish closer political and economic links with ASEAN. India ’s closer ties with Vietnam and Thailand , and its willingness to conduct naval exercises in the South China Sea , are part of its ‘Look East’ policy. In the post Cold War era, India ’s and China ’s geo strategic space is likely to overlap.

 

 

According to Dr Yuan, there are two kinds of threat perceptions in India vis-à-vis China . There is the perception of a direct military threat from China , which has not changed over the years. After May 1998, China was declared to be the enemy number one and this resulted in a rapid deterioration of bilateral relations. However, after Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh’s visit to China , the situation has improved. Secondly, there is an indirect threat perception from China supplying missile and nuclear technology and military hardware to Pakistan . In China , the threat perception vis-à-vis India is much less. The Indian nuclear weapons program is seen to threaten the global arms control regime rather than being a direct military threat to China ; its military concerns are to the east, namely Taiwan and Japan . On its western frontiers, terrorism in Xinjiang and cross-border support to these terrorist activities from Central Asia is a cause for concern.

 

 

Tccording to Sidhu, one can speculate on three possible trajectories of Sino-Indian relations. The first is of open competition between them for regional and global power. This would mean continued and intensified rivalry in the military, political and economic spheres. This scenario would be marked by a stalemate on the territorial question, arms racing and competition for regional hegemony with China getting closer to Pakistan .  This is likely to obtain if neither side is interested in engaging with the other on any issue. The second scenario would be of total cooperation between the two countries with India and China as complementary poles in a multipolar world. This would be marked by a resolution of all outstanding issues and an understanding on regional issues, including China ’s special relationship with Pakistan . This is likely only if both sides take the bilateral relationship to its highest level and place it above any other bilateral relationship. The third and most plausible relationship would be a combination of competition and cooperation.  In the post Cold War era, the policy of deliberate drift is not going to be adopted by either side. The areas of mutual interest will be identified and worked upon. The key to a successful relationship might well be their respective bilateral relationships with the US .

 

 

In the subsequent discussion the following issues were highlighted.

 

 

o                    China ’s long terms goals are economic development, bringing Taiwan back into the fold, and opposing US hegemony. While the first two are being actively pursued by China , the opposition to US hegemony is mostly rhetorical.

 

                  

 

o                    Calculations of Chinese power are based on the last two decades of high growth rate in a process of economic development that started from the very basics. This growth rate might not be easy to maintain after China ’s entry into the WTO.

 

                  

 

o                    The Chinese might gradually be realizing the extent to which the 1962 conflict influences the Indian mind and take steps to re-evaluate 1962 within the history of Sino-Indian relations.

 

               

 

o                    Though the US would not like to see a military confrontation between India and China , a state of uncertainty between these two Asian giants would ideally serve US regional and global interests.

 

                

 

o                    In the present situation, cross-border terrorism is a bigger threat than border war for both India and China .

 

                  

 

o                    In both India and China , there is a perception that the other side is dragging its feet on settling the border issue. The Chinese feel that they had offered a swap to India twice, first in 1960 and again in 1980, but that India did not respond positively.

 

 

o                    The resolution of the boundary issue is of paramount importance if the bilateral relationship is to take off from its present state into a deeper and more dynamic state. However, for the boundary issue to be resolved both governments must be equally anxious to solve the issue and strong enough to persuade their domestic constituency to accept the negotiated settlement. 

 

                 

 

o                    There is a possibility of cooperation between India and China as members of the WTO. They could provide the leadership to third world countries and represent their interests in international economic fora.

 

               

 

o                    Pakistan is assisting the encirclement of India on behalf of China . The military policies of China on its borders with India are inimical to peaceful bilateral relations.

 

                

 

o                    China is concerned about the cross-border support by Pakistan to Islamic militants in Xinjiang. However, the Pakistani establishment has been repatriating the militants wanted by the Chinese authorities. Successive Pakistani governments have effectively sold to Beijing their ability to control the various militant groups operating from Pakistan . 

 

                 

 

o                    Both India and China are concerned about the US presence in the region.

 

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