Sino- Indian Ties: New Orientation?
31 Jan, 2002 · 685
Sonika Gupta discusses the impact of Zhu Rongji’s visit to India
Zhu Rongji’s visit to
India
ended on a high note with both countries focusing on areas of economic cooperation. This orientation, while beneficial, needs to be examined in the light of political and strategic factors. Economic cooperation forms the core of the present relationship between the
US
and
China
, but can
India
and
China
model their relationship on these lines? The dominant opinion among Indian economists is that since
China
and
India
have competing rather than complimentary economies, economic cooperation cannot take the bilateral relationship very far.
China
has adopted a policy of export-led growth, but
India
is only moving in that direction. At present, the
US
, as a trading partner and as an export market, is more important for both the countries than bilateral trade. However, the Chinese Premier set a target of increasing the volume of bilateral trade from the current $3.5 billion to $10 billion annually in the near future. The information technology sector is an area of possible cooperation, and both countries recognize it’s potential. Zhu Rongji’s visit to
Bangalore
, interaction with Infosys, and his instant approval of their proposal to open an office in
Shanghai
are indicative of the Chinese eagerness to cooperate with
India
in information technology. The Memorandum of Understanding signed between the two countries on Science and Technology will encourage the exchange of ideas and human resources in this area.
Brahmaputra
river’s flow through Chinese and
Indian territory
. This will enable forecasting and management of floods in the Indian Northeast, especially in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, and open the way for the two countries to cooperate on their mutual concerns. The Northeast has traditionally been a sensitive region due to the boundary dispute and the Chinese stand on
Sikkim
. There has been some forward movement in delineating the international boundary between
India
and
China
in Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. A similar exercise is being planned for the disputed boundary in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. An exchange on data in this regard can act as a CBM between the two countries.
India
and
China
have also established a bilateral Joint Working Group on Terrorism and will co-operate with each other on intelligence sharing and exchange of know-how on dealing with terrorism in
South Asia
.
New Delhi
would be keen to see the agreement lead to a containment of terrorist threats in the Northeast and in
Kashmir
. However, the Chinese might not recognize violence in
Kashmir
as terrorist violence. The agreement showcases
China
’s commitment to the global coalition against terrorism and also projects
China
as a victim of terrorism in Xinjiang.
China
has refused to play a mediatory role in the Indo-Pak dispute over
Kashmir
, but urged resolution of the conflict through peaceful means. This is in consonance with the long standing and explicit Chinese policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Non-interference in
Kashmir
is prompted more by an Indian quid pro quo on
Tibet
than by an interest in the resolution of the
Kashmir
dispute.
India
has not supported the movement for Tibetan independence, but the presence of the Dalai Lama in
India
continues to be a dispute with the Chinese.
Pakistan
’s interests in
Kashmir
are tacitly endorsed by
China
. A Memorandum of Understanding was formalized between
China
and
Pakistan
during President Musharraf’s visit to
Beijing
last month (December 2001) to provide $55 million in development aid to
Pakistan
occupied
Kashmir
(PoK). As tension rose along the LoC and the international border,
China
delivered unassembled fighter planes, spares and “strategic assets”, especially delivery systems, to
Pakistan
. These deliveries were made by the sea route to
Karachi
and the land route via the Karakoram highway.
US
presence in
Afghanistan
and its growing relations with
India
,
China
could seek a deeper strategic relationship with
Pakistan
.
China
is categorical that the global campaign against terrorism must remain confined to
Afghanistan
, and has been trying to breathe new life into the Shanghai Five to counter the possibility of continued
US
military presence in the Central Asian region. Though China may argue that it is not looking for a hyphenated relationship with India and Pakistan, its close ties with Pakistan have to be factored into any analysis of India’s strategic concerns vis-à-vis Pakistan; the transfer of nuclear and missile technology from China to Pakistan remains a cause for concern for India.
Another Memorandum of Understanding was signed on exchanging hydrological data on the
Given the
At the present juncture, an expansion in the areas of mutual interest and deferment of the more contentious issues seems to be the approach chosen by both governments. However, this approach will only bear fruit if increased interaction between governments and people creates an atmosphere of mutual trust to solve outstanding issues. Pending this, the Sino-Indian relationship would remain confined to economic cooperation in defined areas.
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