Will there be a Fourth Round?

04 Jan, 2002    ·   677

SS Chandel says that India does not have much choice apart from fighting terrorism defensively in the Valley and else where
S. S. Chandel
After the fidayeen attack on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001, India 's reaction has naturally been an angry one. Public reaction is also outraged. The Prime Minister and the Home minister have made angry, but cautious public statements. Pakistan is, as usual, speaking with a forked tongue. The U.S.A. is supportive of any action by India in its own defense, just as it approves Israel 's retaliation against Palestine . But can there be a war between India and Pakistan ?

 

 

This matter needs serious thought in view of its international repercussions, with both countries possessing nuclear weapons. India and Pakistan are two militarily evenly balanced nations. Is victory within the compass of our military and economic capabilities? How will the 60 odd Muslim nations, including oil behemoths like Saudi Arabia , Kuwait , Iran , Iraq , UAE, Indonesia and others react to an attack initiated by India ? How will the West, especially the U.S.A, U.K. and western powers react? How will China , Pakistan 's closest ally, view such an act? Will it activate our Northern and North Eastern borders? Are our armed forces capable of fighting major wars on two fronts?

 

 

If we follow our option of "hot pursuit" how deep can we go? Can destruction of terrorist camps, which could be located deep within Pakistan , be contemplated? Can our airforce and missiles be aimed at Muridke? Will that not imply aggression? And will Pakistan not respond in kind? What impact will it have on our regions like Gujrat?

 

 

It must be remembered that we are not self-reliant in weapons, ammunition and equipment. Our suppliers ensure that we do not possess replenishments for more than three months. What happens thereafter?

 

 

Musharraf and his supporters may not be our best friends. But will not an escalation of conflict unite the nation behind him? And, if he is replaced by someone else, is his successor likely to be more moderate?

 

 

Our domestic scenario is hardly reassuring. One tenth of our population is Muslim, whose sympathies lie with Pakistan , albeit to varying degrees. If attacked without any clear provocation, the Pakistanis can activate its moles and supporters through the length and breadth of India . What will be their reaction to what the India Mullahs will call a 'Jehad' against infidels? Will they not sabotage anything they can?

 

 

We import 80 per cent of our oil. What if the Gulf countries decide to expert pressure by withholding our oil supplies? How much stocks and holding capacity do we have? The gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia , are staunch friends of Pakistan ; we will do well to remember that they are the highest per captia spenders on defense, which is much beyond their real needs. This weaponry and equipment is, in fact, a strategic reserve for Pakistan .

 

 

Another aspect we must take into consideration is the time needed for evolution of plans, deployment of troops, logistics for a million men, mobilization and interservice coordination. Mrs. Gandhi wanted military action against Pakistan in April 1971, but Field Marshal Maneckshaw undertook the operation only in December 1971. And, at that time, we were strategically advantageously placed with the whole population of Bangladesh in our support with the logistics base in West Pakistan being nearly 3000 kms away, and the Jehadi motivation totally missing.

 

 

Therefore, despite all the hurt that we may justifiably feel and the bellicose statements made by our leaders, we do not have much choice apart from fighting terrorism defensively in the Valley and else where, albeit more astutely and skillfully, while bringing international pressure to bear on the Pakistan to dismantle its terrorist organization like Lashkar-e-Taiba and jaish-e-Mohammad.

 

POPULAR COMMENTARIES