Anand Verma opened the session with an historical overview of the current situation in Afghanistan. According to him, Afghanistan is a nation that has not been able to become a state. A number of factors including ethnicity, religion and language have played a divisive role; though Islam is the common religion, there are many of its schisms being practiced in Afghanistan.

The main question to guide the discussion would be:

• What kind of government is likely to be created in Afghanistan?

• What kind of constitution will be adopted?

• What role will religion play in politics?

•  Will oil politics impact upon competing strategic interests in the region?

• What role will  the US, Pakistan, and India play in the future?

IP Khosla began by pondering the question whether Afghanistan will remain united under the present dispensation under Hamid Karzai.  Since 1747, when Afghanistan was brought under one ruler, there have been many attempts to create an Afghan national identity. This was mainly done through the movement of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras from northern Afghanistan to the south and the movement of Pashtun to the north. In the last 200 years there has been a fair amount of intermixing of the different tribal populations. Under Zahir Shah Afghanistan experienced 42 year of peace though there were intermittent tribal feuds in the rural areas. 

With the advent of the British, they tried to divide Afghanistan along the Hindukush range into its Northern and Southern areas.  They did not succeed in this, but did succeed in dividing the country into Pashtun and non Pashtun regions.  This divide was further deepened by the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They tried to strengthen the tribal identities between the Northern Afghan tribes and the Soviet republics of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.  When the Taliban came into power they displaced the Uzbek, Tajik and other non-Pashtun populations from Pashtun dominated areas to establish their own control. They made polices designed to antagonize the minority groups. 

With such a long history of tribal clashes, it is necessary to keep the issue of representation of all the groups in mind to ensure a satisfactory power- sharing arrangement in Afghanistan The present government in Kabul is mostly made of Panjshir Tajiks, and does not represent the conflicting interests of different tribal groups. Hamid Karzai is a relatively unknown Pashtun and other powerful leaders like General Rashid Dostum have been persuaded for the moment not to oppose Karzai, but how long this truce will hold is a debatable question. [Dostum has since been inducted into the Government]

KK Mitra discussed the Indian interest in the unfolding Afghanistan situation. According to Mitra, Afghanistan is most likely to have an Islamic constitution. It would be in India’s interests to encourage the adoption of a moderate constitution that accommodates the interests of the minorities. India should not get totally identified with the Northern Alliance and be seen as anti-Pashtun.

Afghanistan has to be integrated into the world economic and trading community. The US should not withdraw from Afghanistan after its objectives of taking out the Taliban and Al Qaeda are met. This would plunge Afghanistan into a civil war with different groups competing for power.  No stable government in Afghanistan is possible till Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Iran see eye to eye on the issue. A strong, peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in India’s best interests.

Brig Subhash Kapila advanced the argument that Afghanistan is the classic example of a failed state. It with require prolonged international economic and political resuscitation to survive as a nation state. However, under whose auspices this international resuscitation can be provided is a debatable issue. A NATO led and US dominated campaign is most likely. Unlike Kosovo, this time the UN may be asked to rubber stamp a NATO led campaign. This campaign must focus on building economic and political institutions in Afghanistan. However, economic reconstruction must be the first priority.

The US must not ignore the Russian interests in Afghanistan. The Russians have a long history of presence and vital strategic interest in Afghanistan. Any new dispensation in Afghanistan cannot afford to ignore this powerful neighbour.

In the discussions that ensued the following points were made:

• The issue of the Durand Line needs to be sorted out between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This outstanding issue is responsible for the heavy militarization on both sides of the  Pak-Afghan border.

• The impact of the American military presence, including naval presence in the Indian Ocean on Indian strategic interests needs to be looked into.

• With the Taliban fighters on the run from Afghanistan, India should prepare for likely escalation of militancy in Kashmir.

• The relevance of democracy to a dominantly feudal and tribal Afghanistan can be questioned.

• India should adopt a people-centered approach to build cordial relations with Afghanistan. This includes building communication lines, roads, hospitals and schools in Afghanistan.  

• The aspect of economic cooperation with Afghanistan including measures like a Free Trade Area can be explored for mutual gains.