Sri Lanka Forthcoming Parliamentary Elections and the Politics of LTTE
31 Oct, 2001 · 624
K Sarveswaran analyses the LTTE’s real politick in the light of the forthcoming Parliamentary elections
Prabakaran, the supreme commander of the LTTE, has expressed readiness to ‘talk with the United National Party (UNP) without a facilitator, if it comes to power’.
Reading
between the lines would reveal the political calculations of the LTTE. It conveys a different message to three different sections of society.
Norway
facilitation process, had assumed that they (Norwegians) would exert pressure on the Sri Lankan state to offer a federal system. That was not acceptable to them. They were asking for Indian mediation, presumably because
India
has banned the LTTE and would not give it any importance. These forces would be satisfied if Chandrika freezes the peace process. By this message the LTTE is conveying the message to the Sinhalese that ‘if you vote the UNP to power I will talk without a facilitator’.
Firstly, the international community is told that ‘LTTE has not closed the doors for negotiations’. Considering that LTTE is one of the twenty seven organisations declared terrorist by US but not included in its present anti-terrorist drive, it has wisely used this opportunity to reassert its position that it represents the rights of the Sri Lankan Tamils.
Secondly, by saying that the ‘LTTE will talk with the United National Party (UNP) if it comes to power’, the message to the Sri Lankan Tamils is to support the UNP or its allied parties in the forthcoming elections. Knowing the psyche of the Tamils, who are longing for peace and would appreciate any such moves by the LTTE, they would definitely co-operate to realise the same.
Third, the message to the Sinhalese in general, and the hardliners in particular, is that the LTTE will talk with UNP directly without a facilitator, if it comes to power. Thereby the message to the Sinhalese who support a political solution through devolution of power is to vote for UNP to achieve peace. The hardliners, who were opposing the
The question arises, does the LTTE believe the UNP would offer an acceptable solution? Is the LTTE prepared to drop the demand for separation and seek a negotiated settlement? The LTTE’s stand about Sinhala polity including the UNP and the LTTE’s approaches towards peace talks in the past raises doubts about a hidden agenda in this message.
The President of Sri Lanka has extensive executive powers. The first executive President JR Jeyawardana had said that ‘I cannot convert a boy to a girl or vice-versa. Rest all I can do’. It delineates the unlimited powers of the President. The current President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, has five more years to complete her term. Hence, if the UNP captures power in the Parliament, there will be tussle between the President and the Parliament. Since the President is the head of the armed forces the portfolio of Defence would be with her. Besides defence, she has the power to reserve other portfolios with herself. She also has the power to reject any ministerial candidates from the list submitted by the Prime Minister. Thus, there could be a tussle even at the ministry formation stage. If it continues, it would create a constitutional crisis. Hence a UNP victory would ensure an unstable government.
In this situation, comprehensive talks with the LTTE would be impossible. Even if talks take off, the LTTE could reject their outcome using the instability argument as an excuse. The LTTE’s response to the call for talks by Chandrika was expressed by its spokesman, Anton Balasingam, who said that ‘we do not want to jump into the sinking ship’. If the LTTE accepts the offer for talks with UNP, the Sri Lankan President or her party may obstruct the UNP moves for gaining a positive image. This would provide another opportunity for the LTTE to expose the historical anti-Tamil politics in the competitive party system and the character of the Sri Lankan state. Ultimately, the LTTE would be in a better position to continue on its campaign.
Will the LTTE realise its calculations? Due to the inability of the Chandrika-led government to find a peaceful solution to the ongoing ethnic war, the cost of living has increased rapidly. This has serious repercussions among the Sinhala voters. A survey recently conducted by the
POPULAR COMMENTARIES
