New Regime in Bangladesh: Concerns for India
11 Oct, 2001 · 607
Brig Chandra B Khanduri points out that though the BNP came to power with a thumping majority on an anti-India manifesto, geo-politics will dictate the new government’s strategic priorities
The political spectrum of
Bangladesh
emerging out of the October 1st elections swung the pendulum unpredictably. In a reversal of public opinion, the BNP, with 186 seats, over three times that of the ruling Awami Leaague, secured a virtual majority.
India
on the ‘Ganges Water Treaty’ and threatened to raise it in the United Nations. Internally too, Begum Zia Khaleda has threatened Gen Ershad, who ruled Bangladesh from 1982 till the beginning of 1991, with a dozen charges including corruption and allegations pertaining to Gen Zia-ur-Rahman's assassination in 1981. The Jamat, an election partner of the BNP, has an established obscurantist agenda of seeking conversion of
Bangladesh
into an Islamic Republic. It is reported to have former pro-Pakistan Razakars and ‘Beharis’ among the newly elected members and they have raised the banner of Islamic fundamentalism targeting the 15-million Hindus, Buddhists and Christians in
Bangladesh
.
India
has not only created the new historic nation of
Bangladesh
in 1971, but has also maintained pragmatic relations with it.
India
’s continuing search for improved relations was best exemplified by the Indian Prime Minister when he traveled in the first bus from Kolkatta to
Dhaka
in 1999.
India
has given a Rs 200 crore (US$ 45 million) loan and extended non-reciprocal duty free facilities for select items besides restoring multi-nodal communications.
Tin
Bigha
Island
area, there occurred serious confrontations between the Indian Border Security Force and the Bangla Rifles on the Meghalaya border early this year. Maturely handled, it prevented a border flare up. The illegal trans-regional movement of Bangladeshis, already affecting the demographic stability of
Assam
,
Bengal
and Tripura, portends to create an explosive situation in
India
’s northeast in the not too distant future. Then there are irksome situations created by
Pakistan
's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) operatives in
Bangladesh
and sporadic movement of insurgents from
Assam
and the Northeast into the country. The previous Awami League Government, however, had showed considerable determination to control the situation. Whether similar enthusiasm would be forthcoming from the BNP led Government would require careful scrutiny.
Bangladesh
is a melting pot of various cultures with a polity that swings and sways and draws sustenance on the populist psychology of its volatile and emotional masses. It however has few constraints: language affinity and civilizational interdependence on
India
. Of these, language and cultural affinity are inalienable. It was the demand for Bangla as language, which, in fact, sowed the seeds of the country’s secession from
West Pakistan
. This agitation for supremacy of language eventually climaxed into the events of 1971.
Bangladesh
is stabilizing both politically and economically. It will progress if politics and religion are separated and the nation’s forward march is not stalled by Islamic fundamentalism; the newly elected government under BNP needs to bear this in mind. Geography helps build geo-politics, which in turn becomes an essential factor in geo-strategy.
Bangladesh
would therefore have to evaluate its strategic priorities, vis-à-vis its neighbour,
India
. Khaleda Zia, despite her vocal anti-India policy during her uneventful and non-rewarding first tenure as Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 1991-1996, fortuitously seems to acknowledge the need to maintain mutually beneficial relations.
In its election manifesto, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had targeted the Awami League for its ‘sell-out’ to
On the face of it,
There have been problems too. After the settlement of the dispute in the
While
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