Defining Trends from a Year of Conflict in West Asia

17 Jan, 2025    ·   5884

Dr. Muneer Ahmed takes stock of the four ways in which conflict has substantially altered the region’s strategic landscape




Since October 2023, violence in West Asia, particularly between Israel and factions in Gaza and Lebanon, has seen substantial escalation. This conflict has significantly reshaped the region, impacting not only military strategies but also diplomatic relationships, social media narratives, and evolving discourse around using force. This article highlights outstanding features of the ongoing conflict and examines their effects on the region’s strategic landscape.

Impact on the nature of warfare

Israel and non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah have adapted their combat strategies, influenced by technological advancements and changing battlefield conditions. The increased use of drones, particularly by Hamas and Hezbollah, is one of the most significant developments. Hamas has employed drones for reconnaissance and kamikaze attacks, demonstrating a substantial enhancement of their offensive capabilities. In response, Israeli forces have integrated AI for real-time threat assessment and facial recognition, allowing them to intercept many rocket and drone attacks successfully.

Additionally, the Iron Beam—an advanced laser-based air defence system—is reportedly nearing deployment. It will enhance Israel’s capability to target smaller, low-altitude threats like drones. Existing Israeli defence systems have not been able to intercept every projectile launched by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hamas, and Hezbollah.

Both sides have also extensively utilised cyber operations. Israel has conducted sophisticated cyberattacks aimed at Hamas’ infrastructure, targeting banking services and imposing blanket bans on Hamas’ telecommunications to spy on its adversaries. Conversely, Hamas has engaged in various cyberattacks, including spying, phishing, and denial-of-service (DoS) attacks on Israeli websites. Innocent civilians often get caught in this crossfire. While cyber warfare may seem like a formidable offensive tactic, non-state actors are unable to compete with the resources of a state.

Social media documentation and its impact on the war

Social media is widely accessible and has been used to document the conflict, impacting not just how war is waged but also how it is perceived. The role of social media has been central to documenting and shaping the narrative of this conflict. It has altered global perception and influencing political discourse by providing near-instantaneous coverage of the conflict. For instance, amid Israeli airstrikes on civilian infrastructure in Gaza, videos of the destruction and civilian casualties were uploaded online within minutes, facilitating increased global scrutiny.

In many ways, social media has become a tool for documentation as well as a platform for advocacy, pressuring governments to respond to human rights violations. It has also galvanised humanitarian efforts following the viral spread of images depicting devastation in Gaza.

Testing political agreements; shifting alliances

The ongoing conflict has had significant ramifications for regional diplomacy, testing the durability of existing political agreements and shifting alliances. The conflict has put pressure on the Abraham Accords brokered by the US, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain. The accords have remained intact primarily due to the will of the Arab monarchs though the political costs of maintaining relations with Israel are increasing. As the conflict in Gaza escalated, British Petroleum (BP) and Adnoc, a UAE-owned oil company, suspended negotiations to purchase a 50 percent share in Israel’s leading natural gas producer, deeming the US$2 billion deal “politically risky.”

Similarly, Bahrain experienced domestic protests, with citizens demanding that their government cut ties with Israel. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, the responses of key regional Arab actors have been notably subdued—marking a stark change. While Israel’s military retaliation and the resulting humanitarian crisis have faced widespread condemnation, most Arab states have taken a cautious approach, prioritising their national interests over support for the Palestinian cause.

Similarly, the US and major European powers might need to recalibrate their involvement in the region. As they continue to provide military and financial support to Israel, they face increasing criticism both domestically and internationally for not doing enough to halt the violence. US efforts to mediate ceasefires have been repeatedly undermined by on-the-ground developments, such as the breakdown of a tentative ceasefire in June 2024, brokered by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Cross-border strikes between Israel and Hezbollah are also straining the ceasefire in Lebanon as both sides accuse each other of violations. In addition to the scrutiny regarding the role and efficacy of great powers, similar scepticism has also surrounded multilateral institutions. A record number of casualties involving journalists and emergency aid workers is another dominant feature of this escalation.

Iran-Israel dynamics

Iran has downplayed the impact of Israel’s recent strikes on its territory, which occurred on 26 October in response to a missile attack conducted by Iran on 1 October—marking the second such attack in 2024. For decades, both states have engaged in a shadow war, executing covert assassinations and cyberattacks, with Iran activating proxy militias (axis of resistance) across the Arab world to target Israel. However, the recent Israeli strikes signify a pivotal moment, with Israel openly acknowledging that it targeted Iran. This unprecedented admission has unsettled Iran, raising doubts about its capacity to deter direct attacks.

In April, following an alleged Israeli attack on its diplomatic post in Damascus, Iran retaliated against Israel, who in turn conducted another strike, though this wasn’t confirmed officially. This time, however, Israel confidently declared “precise strikes” on Iranian military targets. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, initially urged a measured response, asserting that the strikes should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.” Going by Iran’s usual strategy, this calm facade might soon erode, leading to a violent response.

The toppling of a key Iranian ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, by a Salafi group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has enabled an Israeli incursion in Syria through the Golan Heights. Such developments might further deteriorate Iran’s capabilities, yet a weaker Iran may not refrain from aggression should it feel threatened.

Conclusion

The past year of conflict in West Asia has significantly changed the regional strategic landscape. Military strategies have evolved, with advanced technologies and hybrid warfare becoming central to the fighting. Diplomatic relations, especially within the Arab world and between global powers, have become strained. Additionally, social media has amplified both the documentation and perception of the war. Red lines that once governed the use of force have shifted, increasing the risk of broader regional escalation. As the conflict continues, the fragile balance in West Asia will remain a source of instability, with profound implications for both regional and global security.

 

Dr. Muneer Ahmed is Senior Researcher with IPCS’ Centre for Internal and Regional Security (IReS).

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