US Sanctions against China and Pakistan- Who stands to gain?
12 Sep, 2001 · 576
Sonika Gupta argues that proliferation of nuclear and missile technology from China to Pakistan is only likely to harm their ties with India and the US
The recent
US
sanctions on
China
and
Pakistan
due to missile technology transfer by
China
to
Pakistan
display the
US
anxiety about damage to the non proliferation regime. Neither does this China-Pak nexus help either country’s bilateral relations with
India
. What are the gains accruing to
China
and
Pakistan
from this collaboration despite risking damage to their ties with
India
and the
US
?
China
might be violating the NPT to defy the
US
, its gains of this are dubious. China may also be setting up Pakistan and North Korea as counterweights to India and Japan, but this assumes that China is concerned about direct threats from these countries, but neither is a an urgent strategic concern for China.
Pakistan
, however, perceives gains from a technology transfers from
China
in competing with Indian nuclear programme, but this only adds to tensions between
India
and
Pakistan
rather than create an atmosphere congenial for bilateral dialogue. Further, there might be greater appreciation of
Pakistan
’s military concerns regarding
India
if it is regarded as committed to fighting terrorism and preserving nuclear stability in
South Asia
.
Pakistan
has been crying itself hoarse about the unfairness of the
US
sanctions on
India
and
Pakistan
imposed in the wake of the Pokharan tests. The re-evaluation of the sanctions against
India
by the Bush administration comes from its realization that
India
is as an important actor in International relations and a responsible nuclear power.
Pakistan
, on the other hand, is internationally isolated, and the Musharraf regime has to fight for international acceptance. The refusal of the Commonwealth to take
Pakistan
back into its fold despite the General having been “legitimized” as the President of Pakistan, is reflective of world opinion on the current state of Pakistani politics.
Pakistan
’s ties with the Taliban regime in
Afghanistan
are causing serious damage to its image. Despite Musharraf’s efforts to curb the extremist elements at home, Pakistan- Taliban ties are seen by the
US
to be that main a source of international terrorism. The Pakistani economy urgently needs a boost and the American Business Council for
Pakistan
has appealed to the Bush administration waive its sanctions. However, in the light of the CIA’s report establishing that
Pakistan
has been the recipient of nuclear technology from
China
and is developing indigenous nuclear and missile technology, this appeal is not likely to cut any ice with
Washington
.
Pakistan
may have banked on the
US
desire to see
Pakistan
on the road to democracy and economic recovery as opposed to increased isolation and a slide towards Talibanisation, but for that to happen
Pakistan
has to exhibit some commitment to US interests in achieving nuclear stability in
South Asia
. Minus this commitment,
Pakistan
is only in position to threaten political and economic suicide.
South Asia
. Recurrent reports of nuclear and missile proliferation from
China
to
Pakistan
seriously endanger any possibility of a bilateral Indo-Pak engagement on this. On the other hand, Sino-Indian relations are not helped by this nexus between
China
and
Pakistan
. This is one of the major issues of concern in Sino-Indian relations. The Chinese have repeatedly said that
India
is an important neighbour with whom it wants to build a mutually beneficial relationship. However, these utterances are not accompanied by an appreciation of Indian concerns rising out of nuclear and missile technology transfers to
Pakistan
.
Hainan
spy plane incident. The CIA’s report identifying
China
as violating the NPT is bad news for
China
’s credibility as a responsible state.
China
has assiduously developed its commercial and technological ties with the
US
over the past few years and, at present, the Sino-US ties are quite broad -based. It is possibly on the strength of these ties that
China
risks damaging the non-proliferation regime. The “engage
China
” policy chalked out and followed during the
Clinton
years has seen the
US
dithering on recognising
China
as a blatant proliferant. However, the Bush administration takes a more realist view of the situation and wants to engage
China
on issues of missile defence. Here we see a shift in policy from a gradual integration of
China
into major international regimes both on weapons and the economy, to an emphasis on situating
China
solely within US national interests. The latter is not likely to brook nuclear proliferation to states of concern like
Pakistan
,
North Korea
and
Libya
. Though Chinese integration into the world economy is seen as mutually beneficial by the
US
and
China
, the Bush administration is not likely to ignore violations of the NPT and treat it as a separate issue. In fact, the Bush administration has pushed its military and strategic concerns at different world fora, at times even risking the displeasure of its NATO partners. It is, hence, not likely that it will be in a mood to make compromises with
China
on the non- proliferation issue. Though there might be, in the long term, an agreement between the
US
,
Russia
and
China
on the NMD, this issue is wide at present. This too is not likely to soften the
US
stand on Chinese proliferation and what the
US
perceives as sources of international terror.
China
and
Pakistan
to convince the international community about the seriousness of their intent to safeguard world peace and to build fruitful relations with
India
and the
US
.
As far as Indo-Pak relations are concerned, a commitment to improving bilateral relations needs to be displayed by both sides; for that creating a stable atmosphere is essential. Greater transparency regarding the nuclear programmes of the two countries, of course within reason, is required. This is also necessary for negotiating risk –reduction measures between the two nuclear powers in
Sino-US relations have just recovered from the downturn triggered by the
It is up to
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