Agra: The Way Ahead

02 Aug, 2001    ·   534

Lt Gen AM Vohra suggests that talks be continued between India and Pakistan on non-contentious issues than getting bogged down by the Kashmir issue
Lt. Gen. AM Vohra
General Musharaff statement that there is no military solution to the Kashmir issue is of considerable significance. Since October 1947 Pakistan has been seeking it, but, three wars and a proxy war since 1988 have not provided one. India does not consider war a desirable option, as it would impede the objectives of the country’s economic and social development. This was an important consideration in keeping the response to Kargil limited to vacating territory occupied by Pakistan and not opening another front.  This consideration has prevented retaliatory raids into Pakistan controlled Kashmir . Musharraf’s statement implies that Pakistan sees the futility of war and is willing to adopt the course of bilateral negotiations. The dire state of Pakistan ’s economy is a strong reason to change course. 

 

 

Prime Minister Vajpayee has had long one-to-one sessions with President Musharraf during the recent Agra Summit to assess the latter’s motivations. Addressing the BJP’s national executive on 28 July, Vajpayee said that Musharraf was in no mood “to pursue the path of friendship” with India . One must however take note of other indicators. Najum Mushtaq of The News, Lahore , writes, “Gen Musharraf has shown a surprising deviation from the past rulers: he wants peace with India . He asks the clergy to refrain from regurgitating anti-India rhetoric. For the people of my generation – born in the 1960s and growing up under Zia- this new tune sounds almost blasphemous.” 

 

 

After over 50 years of hate India campaigns and an obsession with the territory of Jammu and Kashmir , does or can Pakistan see things in a new light? Musharraf’s admission of there being no military solution would indicate a change. In so far as the obsession with Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, there is some rethinking here also. Khaled Ahmed of The Friday Times says, “I think the status quo on the LoC is frozen. I don’t think it is now possible for one to take the other’s territory. Most people who run Pakistan are reconciled to this. But they will not say it.” Hussian Naqi, Director Human Rights Commission states, “A solution that allows the Valley the maximum internal autonomy will finally be acceptable. This will of course involve slight changes in the existing LoC.” Irshad Ahmed Haqqani of the Jang does not accept the LoC. He says, “We can start to bargain from the Chenab formula and then we will see….” The point to be noted is that there are voices in Pakistan advocating negotiations (not war) and their stand on the dividing line is not rigid.

 

 

India should agree to accord primacy to the Kashmir issue along with the question of cross border terrorism. There is universal acceptance of the fact that Pakistan is behind this terrorism. Local insurgency has been initiated, magnified and kept alive by Pakistan . The ISI has been facilitating and organising recruitment and training of non-Kashmiris militants. Ingress into Jammu and Kashmir is through Pakistan Army’s posts on the LoC, which provide administrative support, communications and fire support. Diversionary fire support is also provided at the time of ingress. 

 

 

There is no scope for any doubt that discussion of the Kashmir issue is hindered by the proxy war. However, Pakistan cannot be expected to admit that it is behind it or is conducting it. Nor would it be possible for Pakistan to accept any reference to it in an international document on agreement. Does the answer lie in agreeing to a bold statement like, “ India and Pakistan agree to discuss the issue of Kashmir . The ongoing militancy in the region jeopardizes progress and needs to be addressed urgently.” Some such statement dressed in diplomatic parlance might be acceptable.

 

 

Granting the Kashmir and militancy issue primacy will not produce an instant solution; it will require considerable time to negotiate. It is therefore incumbent on India and Pakistan to consider other issues and implement CBMs. This would create the right environment for talks and facilitate them. Apart from issues like Sir Creek, new points for visa and entry exit, CBMs like activating hot lines, exchange of academics and students can only help in improving the atmosphere for increasing trade and other allied issues without diverting focus from the primary issues. 

 

 

It would be necessary to ensure that both India and Pakistan concentrate on the positive aspects, and seek a meeting of the foreign ministers as per Pakistan ’s invitation to the Indian Foreign Minister. Talks need to be continued to lead to a better-structured and purposeful summit. 

 

 

 

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