Forthcoming Indo-Pak Summit

05 Jul, 2001    ·   517

Report of the IPCS Panel Discussion held on 29 June 2001
Panelists

 

 

Mr. J. N. Dixit

 

 

Lt. Gen. H. Kaul

 

 

Prof. Kalim Bahadur

 

 

J. N. Dixit

 

 

The invitation to Gen. Musharraf represents a qualitative shift in Indian policy towards its western neighbour. The shift is welcome. The reasons for the U-turn are:

 

 

1. Genuine desire for peace in the subcontinent.

 

 

2. Immense pressure from the US on both India and Pakistan .

 

 

3. Economic predicament of Pakistan .

 

 

4. Atmosphere in Kashmir ; ceasefire was expectedly not a success.

 

 

5. Activities of Islamic extremists.

 

 

Gen. Musharraf wants to come to some agreement with India , but the power structure in Pakistan is unwilling to permit him to clinch a deal with New Delhi especially on the Kashmir issue. This is mainly because Kashmir is seen as the “unfinished agenda of partition” in Pakistan . Even the upcoming summit is opposed by fundamentalist groups and the main political parties of Pakistan . However, the two heads of government should not only maximise the opportunity created, but also publicly declare their willingness to meet again. Institutional mechanisms are required to discuss the contentious bilateral issues in a piece-meal manner rather than by a composite dialogue. Instead of stressing tripartite talks each side can consult the concerned groups in Kashmir separately. It is also important to link the dialogue on Kashmir with the reduction of cross-border terrorism in the Valley. The situation will improve if Pakistan desists from sponsoring terrorism. Nuclear risk reduction also seems an important agenda for talks. As far as outcome of the talks is concerned, no solution on specific issues can be expected. However, agreements on general interests like economic cooperation and transit of gas pipeline are possible.

 

 

Lt. Gen. H. Kaul

 

 

Whilst agreeing with Mr. Dixit, Gen. Kaul noted that Pakistan ’s drift away from the US towards China and anti-Indian/anti-US postures of the jihadis were two other motives behind the invitation extended to Musharraf. 

 

 

Nothing substantial could be expected from the Summit as it was going to be a one-day affair, yet some beginning can be made in the following areas:

 

 

1. A commitment to continue the ongoing process of talks.

 

 

2. Linking dialogue on Kashmir with the termination of cross-border terrorism.

 

 

3.  Some form of economic agreement, such as those related to trade and the gas pipeline. 

 

 

Prof. Kalim Bahadur

 

 

The media has created too much hype over Musharaff’s visit. He does not deserve the reception planned for him because he is really a military dictator who toppled the democratically elected government and the man behind the Kargil intrusions. Such overtures convey wrong signals that would reflect on the negotiating table. Musharraf’s views are not expected to be moderate.

 

 

Musharraf accepted the invitation mainly due to two main reasons:

 

 

1. The grim situation of its economy. Its economic progress depends on reducing its defence expenditure by achieving peace with India .

 

 

2. The realization that the militant activities in Kashmir cannot be sustained for very long.

 

 

There is little hope on the outcome of the summit. Some agreement on the continuity of such talks would be an achievement. He was also of the view that the several solutions being suggested for resolution of the Kashmir problem were untenable from India ’s point of view, as they seek to dilute its sovereignty in one way or the other. Indeed, even Pakistan was not looking for a solution on the Kashmir issue in one meeting; right now its goal was to get Kashmir accepted as a dispute. But, even its indirect acceptance as a dispute would aggravate the situation in Kashmir to Pakistan ’s benefit.

 

 

DISCUSSION

 

 

Q: Is the up coming UP elections one of the compulsions for the Government of India to invite Musharraf? What about pressures from the Gulf countries for the talks?

 

 

R: The panel was divided over UP elections as one of the internal dynamics of Indian foreign policy. As far as pressure from the Gulf countries is concerned, Saudi Arabia ’s advice to Pakistan was recognized.

 

 

Q: Is there a possibility of third party mediation in Kashmir ?

 

 

R: Pakistan would like to have mediation on the issue, but India should not accept any such suggestion in regard to its own territory. It should not sacrifice its national interests for the sake of giving something to Musharraf to take home.

 

 

Q: Will China accept the outcome of the talks?

 

 

R: Any reduction of terrorism by Pakistan will be appreciable by the Chinese leadership, as China is also facing the problem of Islamic fundamentalism in its own backyard.

 

 

 

 

Comments

 

 

· Both sides will generate much hype on the outcome of the summit, however limited it might be. For Pakistan it is Kashmir , and for India it is cross-border terrorism that are the immediate priorities. Pakistan may also try to link nuclear risk reduction and Siachen with Kashmir . Both sides should discuss the nature of their relations and be more serious about the peace process.

 

 

· The US pressure behind the talks is evident as it serves its non-proliferation interests. Siachen might be discussed during the talks in which case India should not exchange the strategically vital Siachen glacier and Karakoram in exchange for areas west of the ceasefire line.

 

 

 

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